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December 21, 2008

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San Diego Real Estate Recovery in 2009?

by Bob Schwartz

 

San Diego homeSan Diego home values could finally stabilize in 2009. With a huge inventory of available homes and buyers actually having to qualify for a mortgage, there is a better than 50/50 chance the San Diego housing recovery won't occur in 2009 and maybe not in 2010.   

 

 

 

 

 

Most people are totally stressed-out financially and the next crisis coming is credit cards.  Go to any FOOD store and people are buying with credit cards.  Banks are about to slam that door shut and then people are in trouble.  Not to mention unemployment.  It will easily reach a reported 9% (government reports are always wrong). In reality it will be closer to 20% when you count the shortened hours and part time workers along with those who have just given up.  Most people will have a difficult time being a QUALIFIED buyer.  They will have limited down payments and their credit and income will be tight. 

 

 

 

 

 

Many loan reps are encouraging more bad loans by pushing FHA 97% home loans with their heavy mortgage insurance.  With the dropping prices and 97% FHA loans, unless there is a big change, many current  San Diego home buyers will be in the upside down position and forced to stay in that home with negative or little equity for a long time. 

 

 

 

 

 

Is the Government soon going to be forced to bailout the FHA? A year ago, this would be considered absurd. However, recall: IndyMac, AIG, FannieMae, FreddieMac, Washington Mutual, Downey Savings …

 

 Top this off with the fact that in 2009 we will see more "regular' adjustable home loans come up for their first adjustament than all the subprime loans of the past two years. With today's lower rates it may not be the 'rate shock' that is the problem, but the fact that many homeowners will, for the first time ,realize that their San Diego home is worth tens of thousands less than their loan balance.

 

Prior related posts:

 

 

 

San Diego real estate agents

 

A tinge of yellow — Greater Fool – The Troubled Future of Real Estate – In reality, it’s a godawful time for real estate, and it’s going to get progressively worse through 2009, for the reasons we have exhausted on this blog. Chief among them will be unemployment, as witnessed by the layoffs just announced …

Will 2009 be a Bull or Bear year? | Real Estate Buzz – McGrath Real Estate chief executive John McGrath is confident about the health of the market, predicting bargains aplenty in suburbs such as Vaucluse, Hunters Hill, Longueville, Northwood, Northbridge, Cremorne, Mosman, Avalon, …

 

INTERMEX POWER: Who Saw The Housing Bubble Coming? – While conceding that economic fundamentals were favorable to rising home prices, they also noted that there were elements of bubble psychology in the housing market. Case and Shiller pointed to an increase in the buying of real estate …

 

Tucson Real Estate Plunges January 2009 | Tucson Real Estate … – The Phoenix real estate market is not the Tucson real estate market. You can draw as many valid conclusions about the conditions of the Tucson real estate market from a housing report from China as you can from Phoenix. …

 

New Jersey Real Estate Report » A good time to buy? – No one should be surprised the real estate market has turned to sawdust. Home sales in New Jersey are expected to finish 2008 at just 68000, down 20 percent from the 85000 sold a year ago, said Jeffrey Otteau, president of otteau.com, …

 

Housing Bubble – Daily Digest – Jan 3 – – Jan. 2, 2009 | Blogs at … – It's an understatement to suggest residential real estate was either directly or tangentially very important to both economic and financial market outcomes in 2008. It has been the cornerstone of solvency, or lack thereof, …

Toronto Real Estate Intelligence | Toronto's Real Estate Blog … – While the sellers' market made some Toronto homeowners arrogant in the past, every offer made this year has to be treated with respect. January 3, 2009 in Toronto Real Estate Trends | Permalink …

 

St Cloud MN Real Estate Blog » Blog Archive » 3rd quarter 2008 … – We have seen the end of a crazy period of time both in the real estate market and in the stock market. It is truly amazing how things can change so fast. Click on the file below to see the overall real estate sales statistics for St …

 

10 FDIC Charts and Graphs Highlighting Bank Problems: FDIC … – Yet the true bank failures will be hitting in 2009 with the bust of the commercial real estate market. In this article, we are going to examine the makeup and anatomy of our banking system with data and charts from the FDIC. …

 

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