Was There A San Diego Real Estate Recovery?
Bob Schwartz San Diego Realtor
There has not yet been a recovery in the San Diego real estate market!
There was a short head-fake provided by trillions of dollars in taxpayer funds that were thrown at the real estate market by both the Federal government and the fiscally astute, California legislature. Read more 
San Diego Real Estate Reality Check
There is a still more greed in this market than there is fear. From the people that I talk to, it is an almost uncontrollable desire to rebuild their retirement/savings accounts that were based in the San Diego housing and equity markets. They do not realize that both the real estate and stock markets can go down for long periods at a time.
They have been brainwashed by the talking heads to be long term investors and to not worry about the short term hiccups that occur in the marketplace. This theory may have had some validity in past markets, but it is always far more prudent to set stop-loss points on any investment, than to suffer losses in the 40% range seen in the San Diego residential housing market and many stock portfolios in the current down-turn.
Certainly, the San Diego housing market has a good probability (based on the currently proposed incentives in the 2009 stimulus plan) of bottoming out this year. That does not mean that housing appreciation will come back any time soon. Yet, many people hope to recoup their real estate equity looses within a year or two of the bottom. To me, this is like the mom who gave birth to the eight babies stating she believed she could pay for their upbringing on her own, once she finished her schooling. San Diego real estate agents
San Diego Real Estate Recovery?
Yesterday, the Lieberman/Isakson Amendment was included in the senate version of the Economic Stimulus Bill by a unanimous voice vote. This amendment would provide a Tax Credit to all home buyers at the rate of 10% of the sales price up to a limit of $15,000. The credit would be available for a one year period to all purchasers of primary residences.
Another Senate amendment 353, a proposal by Senator John Ensign (R-NV) if passed, would provide 30 year fixed financing at a rate of about 4%, for anyone purchasing a primary residence.
If these two provisions survive in the final passage of the current stimulus bill they could have a tremendous impact on our industry. Here in San Diego, we could see an immediate and dramatic turn-around in real estate. San Diego Realtor
San Diego Real Estate Recovery in 2009?
San Diego home values could finally stabilize in 2009. With a huge inventory of available homes and buyers actually having to qualify for a mortgage, there is a better than 50/50 chance the San Diego housing recovery won't occur in 2009 and maybe not in 2010.
Top this off with the fact that in 2009 we will see more "regular' adjustable home loans come up for their first adjustament than all the subprime loans of the past two years. With today's lower rates it may not be the 'rate shock' that is the problem, but the fact that many homeowners will, for the first time ,realize that their San Diego home is worth tens of thousands less than their loan balance.
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A tinge of yellow — Greater Fool – The Troubled Future of Real Estate – In reality, it’s a godawful time for real estate, and it’s going to get progressively worse through 2009, for the reasons we have exhausted on this blog. Chief among them will be unemployment, as witnessed by the layoffs just announced …
Will 2009 be a Bull or Bear year? | Real Estate Buzz – McGrath Real Estate chief executive John McGrath is confident about the health of the market, predicting bargains aplenty in suburbs such as Vaucluse, Hunters Hill, Longueville, Northwood, Northbridge, Cremorne, Mosman, Avalon, …
INTERMEX POWER: Who Saw The Housing Bubble Coming? – While conceding that economic fundamentals were favorable to rising home prices, they also noted that there were elements of bubble psychology in the housing market. Case and Shiller pointed to an increase in the buying of real estate …
Tucson Real Estate Plunges January 2009 | Tucson Real Estate … – The Phoenix real estate market is not the Tucson real estate market. You can draw as many valid conclusions about the conditions of the Tucson real estate market from a housing report from China as you can from Phoenix. …
New Jersey Real Estate Report » A good time to buy? – No one should be surprised the real estate market has turned to sawdust. Home sales in New Jersey are expected to finish 2008 at just 68000, down 20 percent from the 85000 sold a year ago, said Jeffrey Otteau, president of otteau.com, …
Housing Bubble – Daily Digest – Jan 3 – - Jan. 2, 2009 | Blogs at … – It's an understatement to suggest residential real estate was either directly or tangentially very important to both economic and financial market outcomes in 2008. It has been the cornerstone of solvency, or lack thereof, …
Toronto Real Estate Intelligence | Toronto's Real Estate Blog … – While the sellers' market made some Toronto homeowners arrogant in the past, every offer made this year has to be treated with respect. January 3, 2009 in Toronto Real Estate Trends | Permalink …
St Cloud MN Real Estate Blog » Blog Archive » 3rd quarter 2008 … – We have seen the end of a crazy period of time both in the real estate market and in the stock market. It is truly amazing how things can change so fast. Click on the file below to see the overall real estate sales statistics for St …
10 FDIC Charts and Graphs Highlighting Bank Problems: FDIC … – Yet the true bank failures will be hitting in 2009 with the bust of the commercial real estate market. In this article, we are going to examine the makeup and anatomy of our banking system with data and charts from the FDIC. …
A San Diego 2009 Real Estate Market Recovery?
San Diego real estate appreciation will never be the same without insanely-loose credit. Where will the spending for a housing recovery come from? People are tightening their belts, and it's not a temporary thing. Our lifestyles have to change, and it's going to be ugly combined with all the other factors (like $51 trillion in unfunded government liabilities).
If a San Diego housing recovery means getting back to 2005 highs, that seems unlikely in the next 2 to 3 years; maybe in 8 to 10 years. Stimulus packages and bailouts may allow the San Diego housing recovery pipe-dream to continue a little longer, but confidence is broken and mortgage lender responsibility is out the window.
I know this forecast is not something that any San Diego homeowner wants to hear right now, but it's a harsh possibility that we all have to accept.
It would be better for the news outlets, politicians, pundits, realtors, et al., to start telling people the truth, rather than filling their heads with pipe dreams, whilst they attempt to thwart reality and prolong the inevitable.
Needless to say, I hope I’m wrong and 2009 is the long awaited return to San Diego annual real estate appreciation.
Prior related posts:
San Diego Real Estate to Drop 20% in 2009?
San Diego Home Mortgage Lenders … Hardball or Common Sense?
Existing Home Sales Increase … Prices Fall
Commercial Real Estate Slump Possible in 2009
San Diego Real Esate Sales Increase
Next … Direct Housing Bailout?
New Home Construction Falls
California Home Prices Forecast to Fall 6% in 2009
San Diego Condominium Sales Price Appreciation