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July 4, 2022

Real Estate Price Cuts are Here

by Bob Schwartz

Real Estate Price Cuts

Real estate asking price cuts are happening!

New construction always drop prices first. Then home owners follow suite. No one wants to be the first in their neighborhood to sell for less. But once it does, people understand that to sell they have to drop prices. Its why we are starting to see all these insane price drops. They dont understand that their houses are priced way to high, yet.

Real Estate Price Cuts

The same economists who just a few months ago told us:

Real Estate Price Cuts - San Diego real estate market

1. There will be only modest inflation;
2. Inflation will be short-lived;
3. Housing prices are going to go up 20% in 2022 Are now telling us that it’ll either be no recession or a brief, mild one.
Here’s the five biggest problems:
1. Americans have no cash reserves. 61% of Americans can’t cover a $1000 emergency in the “richest country on earth”.
2. Inflation is mostly supply-side, not demand side. Fed raising interest rates will crush wage growth more than the inflation rate because interest rate rises are meant to fight demand-side inflation. Supply-side inflation caused by material shortages and supply chain disruptions isn’t being dealt with by our government.
3. Many badly-run, unprofitable companies have been keeping themselves going with free money. But now, that the free money train has been derailed by the Fed,  we may see a lot of companies large and small failing.
4. Housing is in a bubble and the bubble has started to burst! This downturn is going to burn a lot of speculators (20% of all houses were bought by investors, aka speculators) who are going to lose possibly hundreds of billions overnight.
5. Americans not only have no savings, but high debt: the average US household holds debt equal to 129% of its annual gross income. You don’t need to be Dave Ramsey to know that ain’t good. I think all of these things added together, plus a government run by clueless people who live in a bubble of their own (elderly millionaires), is going to result in a collapse that will be different in some ways from 2008, but actually worse, because there’s no clear path to getting out of it. 

My opinions here are just that, opinions!  The fact that I’ve been in the residential real estate market for over three decades, does not mean that my opinions are going to be any more accurate then your mother-in-law’s opinion, though I sure hope they are!

For those of you who may not be regular readers here is the link to the first warning blog post that I put out; my first post where I called the real estate market top was June 15, 2021 (https://www.brokerforyou.com/brokerforyou/real-estate-market-downturn/ ) . On June 17 I had a follow-up post ( https://www.brokerforyou.com/brokerforyou/real-estate-market-bust/ ) where I added additional indicators, that to me showed that the market was in a topping phase right now! I put the links to each one of those prior post above, and would suggest if you’re interested, to reread those posts!

Buckle up your seatbelt because the downward ride for real estate values has just started!

New Home Prices Drop

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