Yale’s Shiller Discusses U.S. Housing Market
Robert Shiller, an economics professor at Yale University and co-creator of the S&P/Shiller home-price index, talks with Bloomberg’s Carol Massar about the U.S. housing market. Shiller also discusses U.S. stocks. (This report is an excerpt of the full interview. Source: Bloomberg)
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Home prices do not double in price on average every ten years. There is no evidence to support such a statement. S&P case shriller home index which goes back to 1890 found that SFR prices went up at the rate of inflation over time. If they do double in any short period it’s called a asset bubble and values return to medium as the bubble implodes.
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OFHEO also shows long term prices run with inflation and return to normal price levels rather than continuing to rise. In order for RE to double every 10 years average income would also need to rise with it, which if you haven’t noticed doesn’t happen and when it does as during the 70’s yield on bonds jump into the teen’s and the FED pushes up interest rates causing home prices to decline.
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Robert Shiller, he made his case 4 years ago for addressing housing prices, and warned that a dramatic fall in prices would lead to widespread systemic risk….read his wealth affect study….sucks to be right….
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