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Posts tagged ‘San Diego real estate bubble’

19
Apr

San Diego Condo Prices Up 30% – A New Real Estate Bubble Forming?

San Diego Condo Prices – Another Bubble?

New San Diego housing bubbleSan Diego California single-family median resale home prices hit $432,000 in March, a rise of 5 percent from February, and nearly 19 percent from March of 2012.

Condos and townhomes saw an even higher increase in the median price – $285,000, which is a jump of 14 percent from February, and 30 percent from March of last year.

Normally, single-family home prices should increase 2-3% a year tops plus inflation… yet we’re seeing 20-30% increases or more? Home values are halfway back to where they were pre-2007! Read more »

20
Jan

San Diego Negative Home Equity

San Diego Home EquitySan Diego real estate mortgage bust. Much has been made of stated income, nina, ninja, etc. loans. The fact remains that the debt to income levels that were accepted during the boom time for people who could document their income exceeded 55%. Sub prime borrowers who could document their income could have DTI levels from 50-55%.

What is not talked about is that Fannie and Freddie loans could get approved with DTI levels as high as 63%. Typically a borrower would need some other strong factor such as high FICO or 6-8 months in reserve. Nevertheless, people are not walking from their homes just because they are upside down. Like most things in life there is rarely one answer, rather a multitude of factors.

Get ready for the next wave of foreclosures, just months away. This new wave of foreclosures will be prime mortgages on upper end homes.                             San Diego real estate agent

16
Jan

San Diego Homeowners with Underwater Loans

San Diego HomeownersPeople might have got into these loans without thinking too hard but I guarantee you that they won't leave as foolishly. You don't need to be Robert Shiller to understand that your housing equity is not coming back any time soon and that rents are becoming ever more affordable.

Besides… who needs a credit score in the next 4 years anyway? Many people approaching 800 on their FICO are still being denied new credit card offers and have no desire to purchase any real estate until the dust settles.

Many strongly believe that underwater homeowners should walk away en masse unless their true desire is to stay put for the next 15 to 20 years. Rip the band-aid off!!!               San Diego Realtor

12
Jan

San Diego real estate – 2009 the Option ARM resets

Many local mortgage lenders feel that San Diego & Southern California were the prime locations for the adjustable Option ARM loans. Now, just when many believed the mortgage crisis was winding down, San Diego real estate will be facing another major obsticle.

Our first post on this problem was San Diego Real Estate … The Coming Next Wave of Foreclosures, published on 7-17-08. It took a little while, but now the major media outlets have picked up on this problem.                                                                San Diego Realtors

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6
Jan

San Diego Real Estate – It Could Get Really Ugly

 

San Diego real estate 2009Did you see Fortune magazine's article (12/22/08) regarding their picks for the worst 10 real estate markets in the nation for 2009? Eight of the 10 worst markets they've called are here in California.  Fortune's article projected valuation losses in the eight California cities of 21-25% for 2009 and additional 2-5% losses for 2010. Really, not what you want to hear anytime, but especially at new years.

 

 

The eight worst California markets named by Fortune, in order are:

 

 

 

 

 

Los Angeles   –   2009 projected change: -24.9%

 

 

Stockton   –   2009 projected change: -24.7%

 

 

 

 

 

Riverside   –   2009 projected change: -23.3%

 

 

 

 

 

Sacramento   –   2009 projected change: -22.2%

 

 

 

 

 

Santa Ana/Anaheim   –   2009 projected change: -22.0%

 

 

 

 

 

Fresno   –   2009 projected change: -21.6%

 

 

 

 

 

San Diego   –   2009 projected change: -21.1%

 

 

 

 

 

Bakersfield   –   2009 projected change: -20.9%

 

 

 

 

 

One should keep in mind that California is ground zero for much of the country's ALT-A and Option-ARM mortgages, which are ready to start re-setting this year, the possibility for things to get really ugly is high.                                                    San Diego MLS listings

 

Related other blogger's posts:

5
Jan

San Diego Real Estate Appreciation Up 100%+

 

San Diego home appreciation of 2000 to 2005 (100%+) made all but a few cautious investors into something very much like a Madoff investors: If you thought about it, you realized something had to be wrong (how do San Diego home prices double, when San Diego household income is essentially static?) . . . but doubting didn't pay; the small band of doubters were the ones gloomily renting condos while all the fun was being had by more aggressive sorts.

 

 

One underestimated factor is the "fear of losing out"– the danger that someone else is getting rich flipping condos, while you do the boring responsible thing, and build up equity. Even  prudent investors were influenced by all the voices saying "buy and leverage".

 

 

What the TV talking heads said about the real estate market for 2007:

 

 

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Prudence is a virtue which needs to be nurtured, particularly in the face of speculative excess.

 

 

Bob Schwartz, San Diego real estate broker

 

 

Other bloggers related posts:

 

18
Dec

San Diego Home Values Drop Over 30%

San Diego home valuesMDA DataQuick just reported median price of all homes sold fell nearly 6 percent from October to November, dipping to a 6-1/2 year low to $305,000. Since November 2007, the median price of all homes sold was off more than 30 percent. Plus, the median price was off more than 41 percent from the market peak of $517,000 in November 2005.
 
John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president, said: “Many first-time homebuyers are, understandably, cheering as foreclosures dominate sales, tugging down prices and raising affordability. For home sellers and the industry, though, one concern over foreclosures representing half of all sales is that those transactions simply repay lenders. They don’t trigger a move-up purchase.”
 
San Diego home sales for November were up 11.4%, but, foreclosures accounted for about half of all resales during the past three months. In November, 54.6 percent of all the homes that resold had been foreclosed on at some point in the prior 12 months. That's up from 50.9 percent in October and 18.8 percent a year ago.
7
Oct

San Diego Real Estate – Recovery or Collapse?

San Diego real estate marketThe Doom & Gloom scenarios seem almost universal – indicating that perhaps the worst has already been discounted. Don't expect any 'instant' clearly defined bottom. It's going to take months, many months, before a real bottom is established.
 
So for now, "hold on" for more volatility until the dust settles and buyers and investors begin looking past the devastation to the inevitable economic and San Diego housing market recovery.                     San Diego real estate agents
6
Oct

San Diego Real Estate Market … What Did You Expect?

San Diego Real Estate MarketSan Diego real estate is very scarce. Most of San Diego open space is owned by the military/Government/parks. So, San Diego real estate can never really go down much in value. If you don't buy a home in San Diego now, the rising prices will never let you purchase as good a value.

Act now! It's 2004 and you can still buy your San Diego home with no down payment, no need to prove employment, the option to pay or not on an irregular basis, below market interest rates for the first few years, monthly mortgage payments low enough that it will cheaper to buy a home than rent an apartment.

Already own a San Diego home?  Why not get a home equity loan 25% more than the home is worth and go on that dream vacation and you can buy a speed boat on your return.

The San Diego media 'financial' commentators were all on board the real estate hype train;after all how could they say anything that would upset their real estate developer advertisers/sponsors?

What did the Government expect would happen with these types of enticements? The newspapers, media 'talking heads' Realtors, banks, appraisers, all fed the fire. Anyone who would even question the San Diego housing market excesses was immediately ridiculed and instantly labeled a 'bubble head' for their lack of 'true vision.'

The truly sad part of this lament is the fact that in late 2005, even after the San Diego month after month real estate sales figures were off double digits, and after most real estate developers were offering huge cash incentives, the main-stream media still did not raise any red flags. Instead it was 'just a return to normal' or “a great time to buy without the pressure of multiple offers." 

So, for those who still blame this all on sub-prime loans, take off your rose-colored glasses and maybe you'll see that the real reasons were much more complex but founded on greed and the herd instinct. If we learn anything from this, it should be that basic economic principals cannot be ignored. When the siren call of a 'new paradigm' is again sounded, heed the lesson of the great 2005 San Diego real estate bubble.

A few prior related posts:

San Diego Home Sales Up … San Diego Home Median Price Drops

Government Bail-Out – Risk & Reward

Southern California Home Prices Drop 34% in August

#1 Key To Purchasing Real Estate in the San Diego Market

The San Diego California Real Estate Great Depression

Yale Professor … House Price Decline Could Be Worse than Great Depression

 

 San Diego real estate agents

 

26
Sep

San Diego Home Sales Up … San Diego Home Median Price Drops

San Diego home salesCALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) reported home sales increased 56.7 percent in August in California compared with the same period a year ago, while the median price of an existing home fell 40.5 percent.

For San Diego real estate, C.A.R. reported that the August median home price was $375,090, off 2% from July.For the year-to-date one year period the San Diego median home price was down 37%. The good news was that San Diego existing home sales for the year-to-date period was up 60.5%.

The San Diego August 2007 median home price was $595,070. This was  $219,980 less than today's median home price.

“There has been no meaningful change in the level of activity since late last fall,” said Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics. “The NAR estimates that 35 to 40% of all sales are of distressed property, so underlying private activity is weaker than the headlines, and there is little sign of imminent improvement.”

I believe this huge jump in San Diego existing home sales shows that WITHOUT GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION, when home prices in an open market look attractive, sales will increase!    San Diego home sales

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