San Diego Home Values
San Diego County Residential Real Estate Market Analysis: 3nd Quarter 2011
By Mark A. Melikian California Certified Residential Appraiser appraisals@san.rr.com P.O. Box 3051 Del Mar, California 92014 858-793-9339
The following is a market data summary of detached and attached properties as reported by the San Diego County MLS system. The data includes all zip codes in San Diego County. * All 2011 data in figures 1 through 4 will be projected based on market data taken from January through September as reported by the San Diego County MLS system. All projections discussed in this analysis will be updated throughout the year in subsequent quarterly reports.
Market Overview: The data provided analyzes residential real estate sales beginning in the year 2000, which is used as the base year. The number of sold listings in San Diego County peaks in 2003 at 42,746 units and decreases through 2008 to 23,972 units. *The 2011 projection shows the total number of units sold for the year will be 32,089 (see figure 1). Read more 
San Diego County Housing Market Outlook
San Diego County Residential Real Estate Market Analysis: 2nd Quarter 2011
By Mark A. Melikian California Certified Residential Appraiser appraisals@san.rr.com P.O. Box 3051 Del Mar, California 92014 858-793-9339
This part 2 of 3
Market Overview: The mean sold price for a housing unit in San Diego County peaked in 2007 at $621,675. The mean sold price in 2009 decreased to a low of $399,200, a 35.8 percent decrease from the market peak in 2007. *In 2011, the projected mean sold price is $413,794, which would represent a 3.7 percent increase from the 2009 mean sold price and a 33.4 percent decrease from the market peak in 2007 (see figure 3).
San Diego County Housing Market
San Diego County Residential Real Estate Market Analysis: 2nd Quarter 2011
By Mark A. Melikian California Certified Residential Appraiser appraisals@san.rr.com P.O. Box 3051 Del Mar, California 92014 858-793-9339
The following is a market data summary of detached and attached properties as reported by the San Diego County MLS system. The data includes all zip codes in San Diego County. * All 2011 data in figures 1 through 4 will be projected based on market data taken from January through June as reported by the San Diego County MLS system. All projections discussed in this analysis will be updated throughout the year in subsequent quarterly reports.
San Diego Real Estate Market Overview:
The data provided analyzes residential real estate sales beginning in the year 2000, which is used as the base year. The number of sold listings in San Diego County peaks in 2003 at 42,746 units and decreases through 2008 to 23,972 units. *The 2011 projection shows the total number of units sold for the year will be 31,190 (see figure 1).
Read more
San Diego Real Estate – A Bottom … Not A Reversal
When the San Diego real estate market hits bottom, it will be just that, a bottom, not a reversal. Don’t believe that home prices will spike up and shoot back up to pre-bust levels any time soon! I find that highly doubtful even if the economy were healthy in other sectors because who is going to fuel this reversal? Will it be the people who have foreclosures and short sales on their credit history, or another group of salivating sub-prime buyers?
Credit is tightening up to the point that home buying is truly back to where you actually have to put 5 to 20% down and have a decent credit rating. That will restrict the pool of available buyers considerably, which will prevent another ridiculous up-ride on the home price roller coaster.
The “bottom” will be the new median home price, according to what the local marketplace and income levels dictate, with modest year to year appreciation.
Until the ‘real’ bottom is reached in the San Diego real estate market, expect many false upward spikes driven by people looking at only one set of data and incorrectly timing the best time to buy.
Related prior posts:
#1 Key To Purchasing Real Estate in the San Diego Market
San Diego California Home Sellers Lose Big
The San Diego California Real Estate Great Depression
Believe the local San Diego ‘experts’ that subprime delinquencies are slowing?
San Diego County Foreclosures up 125% from 2007
Jumbo Financing and the Impact on The San Diego Real Estate Market
Another Look at the June Rise in Pending Home Sales
San Diego Housing Market Bottom?
San Diego housing market
Home prices are still a bubble compared to historic norm. According to Case Shiller index, we are still 20% above long term averages. Typical bottom comes at 20% below average. But this is not your typical recession. This is a deflationary crash. This is Great Depression material. These averages themselves are based on a money supply that was inflated by borrowing for many decades. When the money supply deflates, existing prices and salaries cannot be sustained.
Past generations paid less for housing compared to their income. Whatever you do, do not get into too much debt. If you want to buy, buy cash down or with a large down payment. Even if prices do not fall, in many cases, renting can be cheaper if you consider mortgage interest, property taxes, condo fees, maintenance, lost interest/investment income…
San Diego real estate
San Diego Home Prices Up – Home Sale Down
San Diego home prices
The real estate reporting firm MDA DataQuick, reported today that the San Diego median home prices rose slightly by $500 from October to November to $335,000.
Single-family resale homes rose $1,000, from October to $370,000, which was 1.4 percent above year-ago levels. Resale condos also rose, though the $218,000 November median was down 3.1 percent from November’s $225,000.
That was the good news. The bad news reported in the MDA Dataquick report was that San Diego home sales were down for the fifth straight month in a row! The actual drop was 6.7 percent on a year-over-year basis. This continued drop in San Diego real estate sales is very troubling and for me, and a much more important fact than the modest price appreciation. If this trend continues, it’s just a matter of another month or so before the San Diego median home values also turn down.
San Diego Housing Problem is Getting Worse
San Diego housing market
The number of delinquencies is a dynamic that obviously changes relative to the environment. I apologize for not providing some insight into the hard numbers that your above post requests. Where are we in this process and how much of the problem has already been written off? Is it getting worse, better, or going to be the same and for how long? Read more
San Diego Home Prices
San Diego California home prices
In yesterday’s San Diego Union Tribune the main story in the business section was titled “County and state home prices facing a ‘double dip’ They’re up from last year, but heading downward, Zillow and Realtors report“. I give credit to the Union for reporting the facts, but to toot my own horn, here is part of what I said back in this blog on 5-1-10, in a post titled San Diego California Home Prices … Worst is Over : “I believe the government tax credits (which may be mostly speeding up sales that would have occurred normally) and the fact that a huge number of loans were due to have their first adjustment this year, could cause a double dip in San Diego housing values.”
My point is that if you want a good indication about the current and future San Diego California home prices, you would be wise to get a free subscription to this blog.
Here are some facts from the most recent Seattle-based Zillow company report:
- San Diego and four other California markets were the only ones nationally that posted price declines in the third quarter after five quarters of increase.
- Zillow figures San Diego values are now 31.1 percent off their peak of $538,100 set in September 2005.
- Zillow’s figures for San Diego in the third quarter showed an overall home value of $370,600, up 4.2 percent year over year but a 0.7 percent decline from the second to the third quarter and 0.3 percent decline from August to September.
- Nationally, home values declined 4.3 percent year over year and 1.2 percent quarter over quarter. They have declined for 17 consecutive quarters and are down 25 percent their peak.
- 23.2 percent of single-family homeowners nationally owe more than their homes are worth.
Trapped San Diego Homeowners
Bob Schwartz, San Diego California Realtor
Seems that all attention is paid to people who can’t afford to buy a home, even at the current depressed prices.
What about the large number of current San Diego homeowners with great credit, with the ability to comfortably meet a mortgage payment two or three times the one they are now paying? There are thousands, maybe millions, of homeowners who have outgrown their current homes, either physically or socially. They are held back by the drop in value of their present home. They have so much negative equity that they just can’t scrape together the huge pile of cash they would need to make a move. They sit quietly out of the market, making their monthly payments. They are the potential stimulus the economy needs to tap.
Was There A San Diego Real Estate Recovery?
Bob Schwartz San Diego Realtor
There has not yet been a recovery in the San Diego real estate market!
There was a short head-fake provided by trillions of dollars in taxpayer funds that were thrown at the real estate market by both the Federal government and the fiscally astute, California legislature. Read more