San Diego Real Estate – A Bottom … Not A Reversal
When the San Diego real estate market hits bottom, it will be just that, a bottom, not a reversal. Don’t believe that home prices will spike up and shoot back up to pre-bust levels any time soon! I find that highly doubtful even if the economy were healthy in other sectors because who is going to fuel this reversal? Will it be the people who have foreclosures and short sales on their credit history, or another group of salivating sub-prime buyers?
Credit is tightening up to the point that home buying is truly back to where you actually have to put 5 to 20% down and have a decent credit rating. That will restrict the pool of available buyers considerably, which will prevent another ridiculous up-ride on the home price roller coaster.
The “bottom” will be the new median home price, according to what the local marketplace and income levels dictate, with modest year to year appreciation.
Until the ‘real’ bottom is reached in the San Diego real estate market, expect many false upward spikes driven by people looking at only one set of data and incorrectly timing the best time to buy.
Related prior posts:
#1 Key To Purchasing Real Estate in the San Diego Market
San Diego California Home Sellers Lose Big
The San Diego California Real Estate Great Depression
Believe the local San Diego ‘experts’ that subprime delinquencies are slowing?
San Diego County Foreclosures up 125% from 2007
Jumbo Financing and the Impact on The San Diego Real Estate Market
Another Look at the June Rise in Pending Home Sales
San Diego California Housing Double Dip
real estate double dip
In my 7-7-10 my post: San Diego real estate 2010 2nd. Half Outlook … double-dips I said that my local San Diego real estate market observations indicated that we are heading into a double dip for the real estate market.
Here is what Forbes just said: “The final figures for the U.S. housing market’s performance thus far in 2010 won’t be officially released for several weeks. But a review of the best preliminary data available indicates that the recovery in home values that began in early 2009 has stalled. A second dip is clearly under way in some places, if not across the entire U.S.” Read more 
More homeowners than ever are selling at a loss!
The real estate Web site Zillow.com has reported that in the 12 months that ended June 30, nearly 25% of all homes sold nationwide fetched less than sellers originally paid. Other interesting facts from this report showed:
A. In Merced, Calif., 63% of homes sold during the past 12 months brought in less than what the owner paid. Prices there have fallen 40% over the past 12 months and 56% from their 2006 peak.
B. About 63% of sellers in Stockton, Calif., lost money during the same period, 60% in Modesto, Calif., 55% in Las Vegas and 38% in Phoenix.
C. In Merced, 74.9% of sellers took a loss when they sold during the three months ended June 30 compared with just 28.7% during the same period in 2007.
What happened to all the home buyers in 2006 who thought they had gotten a great home buys when compared to the 2005 homes sale prices? From the same Zillow report we can now see the real answer to this question:
In Stockton, Calif., 2006 buyers now owe a median of nearly $171,000 more than their homes are worth. In Salinas, Calif., 2006 buyers now have median negative equity of $161,000, and in Merced, the figure is nearly $160,000.
Though not in in the report, I would venture to say that one would be hard pressed to find any 2007 home buyers whose homes are worth more today, that what they paid! San Diego California investment property sales