San Diego County Housing Market Forecast
San Diego County Residential Real Estate Market Analysis: 2nd Quarter 2011
By Mark A. Melikian California Certified Residential Appraiser appraisals@san.rr.com P.O. Box 3051 Del Mar, California 92014 858-793-9339
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Detached Housing Market Specifics – 2nd Quarter 2010 compared with 2nd Quarter 2011: Detached home sales data for the 2nd quarter of 2011 shows the highest number of sales were in the $300,000-$400,000 price range. This is consistent with the 2nd quarter of 2010, when the highest number of sales were in the same $300,000-$400,000 price range (see figure 5).
Attached Housing Market Specifics – 2nd Quarter 2010 compared with 2nd Quarter 2011: Attached home sales data for the 2nd quarter of 2011 shows the highest number of sales were in the under $200,000 price range. This is consistent with the 2nd quarter of 2010, when the highest number of sales were in the same under $200,000 price range (see figure 6).
Detached and Attached Housing Market Specifics – 2nd Quarter 2011 Housing Supply: Normal residential real estate markets typically have a six to seven month supply of housing inventory. Based on 2nd quarter 2011 absorption rates, current supply levels for detached properties are at, or below, normal market levels up to the $700,000 plus price ranges. Current supply levels for attached properties are at, or below, normal market levels up to the $400,000 plus price ranges (see figure 7).
Comments and Outlook: Based on the first half of the year, projections for the 2011 San Diego County housing market show sales volume to decrease, days on market to increase and prices to reflect a modest decrease from those in 2010. Similar to recent years, the highest volume of sales activity for detached units is projected in the $400,000 and below price range (entry-level housing). The highest volume of sales activity for attached units is projected in the under $200,000 price range.
Historical data demonstrates that the mean sales price of housing has found a balance near the $400,000 price range. For historical perspective the current median sale price is approximately at the same level as mid-year 2002 (see figure 3).
While most entry level housing units are selling in less than 90 days, supply and demand will still need to align across all price ranges for the residential real estate market to stabilize in the higher price ranges.
On June 30, 2011, there were 12,822 detached and attached property active listings in the San Diego County MLS system. This represents a modest increase over the same time last year, when there were 12,705 detached and attached property listings. Of the current listings, 47 percent are priced above $400,000. Local real estate professionals report first time buyer and investor activity has increased slightly in the second quarter. Whether this will translate to an increase in closed sales will be examined in subsequent reports. With nearly half the listings above $400,000, the increased days on market and the highest concentration of housing units selling below $400,000, real estate professionals must focus on setting realistic price expectations for sellers and employ price reductions, when necessary, as a way to stimulate demand for properties as we continue through the 2011 housing market.
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