San Diego County Home Loan Limits For 2009
The loan limits for FNMA had been at $417,000 going into this year. As part of the “Economic Stimulus Package” the limits were raised based on a formula to a maximum amount of $729,250. The current loan limit under the formula is $697,500 in San Diego County. These loan limits will expire on January 1st. The loan limits for 2009 are based on a formula that is calculated as 1.15 times the median house price for the “highest priced county in the property’s metropolitan or micropolitan area”. Based on the calculation, the new limits for San Diego County for 2009 will be as follows:1 unit = $546,250
2 units = 699,300
3 units = 845,300
4 units = 1,050,500
These #’s are actually higher than we were anticipating and reflect the fact that the MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area) is actually considered (for calculation purposes) to be “San Diego, Carlsbad, San Marcos”. The formula uses the median for the “highest micropolitan area” in the MSA which is Carlsbad in this situation.
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Given the ratio to income to sales price in California the foreclosure crisis will be a California problem for many years. Until the recent bubble lending 3 times income was a good yardstick but now it ranges from 6 to 10 times income and this has become the norm. A good example would be the city of Santa Rosa BMR problem that has a cap of 50K income for houses costing 304K using the FHA 3% down program. Low income cannot afford a 300K home; only in California is this type of thinking keep alive by local and state government. In fact the State yesterday wants to give low income families 100% financing for foreclosure homes in the most impacted parts of the state. These homes require extensive rehab which low income citizens do not have and will again provide a new wave of foreclosures in the coming years.
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Just because people with funny money from stocks and people who got loans who could not afford them drove prices up doesn’t mean this will last. A home is still your best investment in my opinion.
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If you are going to buy a home that you are planning on living in, buy one that you can afford, taxes and insurance and maintenance included. The “asking” price does not tell the whole story, nor does the “adjustable” loan. People paid too much thinking they could flip the house, found no buyer and the adjustable loan was “adjusting”, just like they’d been warned. Of course, no one fore saw the gas prices, the electricity prices, the food prices going through the roof, and all the unemployment.
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Not all foreclosures are due to bad mortgages. I would imagine a healthy number are from folks being out of work too. High and prolonged unemployment has gotta spike the foreclosures.
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The housing market peaked around 2005-2006. A lot of 5-year fixed interest-only loans will reset in 2010-2011. That means more foreclosures in the future.
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Home prices do not double in price on average every ten years. There is no evidence to support such a statement. S&P case shriller home index which goes back to 1890 found that SFR prices went up at the rate of inflation over time. If they do double in any short period it’s called a asset bubble and values return to medium as the bubble implodes. OFHEO also shows long term prices run with inflation and return to normal price levels rather than continuing to rise. In order for RE to double every 10 years average income would also need to rise with it, which if you haven’t noticed doesn’t happen and when it does as during the 70’s yield on bonds jump into the teen’s and the FED pushes up interest rates causing home prices to decline.
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We’re only seeing the last of the 1 and first of the 3 year ARMs getting their bumps now. Remember that even though housing was slowing refinancing were very strong. Not only that but most people that played that game pulled equity out too which means they essentially lump themselves in with the last of the buyers. Even if you say the top was at the end of ’06, and it wasn’t, we still need to get through all of ’09 just to clear out the last of the 3 year ARMs. And the only way those people don’t get hit hard is if property values not just stabilize but actually rise a bit as lending standards are tighter and they will have to come up with some equity.
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Homes will always be unaffordable to the average person in high priced CA as long as government subsidize home owners in the form of mortgage tax deductions, and Fannie Mae bailouts. Remove the interest tax deduction and watch the prices correct 50%. This place a bottom on home prices and increase home ownership than further government meddling. The issue is affordability, not unemployment. Prices are still too high due to government tax policies and bad lending practices.
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Dummies should have made sure they could afford houses before buying them. Lenders should have been more analytical is choosing borrowers who really had the capacity to repay loans at whatever the maximum interest rate could be after any teaser rate ended. Fools–all of the players in this drama are fools.
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