Housing Recovery – You May Have to Wait Until 2012
San Diego housing
As any of my blog readers already know, I’ve not been on board with the San Diego housing “bottom in 2009″ crowd. The Anderson forecast aside, a quick read of my last few post, shows many other prominent forecasters agree with me. As our seasonal up-tick in real estate activity draws to a close in another few months, it looks probable that the winter will bring another chill to the San Diego real estate market.
Below are a couple of other experts’ comments on the current housing market.
David Rosenberg, chief economist at Toronto-based asset management firm Gluskin Sheff & Associates said an interview: “Baby boomers are still in the discovery process on over-sized real estate being more of a ball and chain than a viable retirement investment asset. The high end of the market will be in a bear phase.” Standard & Poor’s Chief Economist David Wyss speaking about a housing recovery said: “We expect prices to drop for another year and then stabilize before starting to rise with incomes.”
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This is very bad news for me. I can’t wait upto 2012
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I look for the recovery to start right after the next election. Why? Hope. We need hope as a nation. From there, give it about a year to win back the confidence needed. The economy is all about confidence.
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I do believe that you cannot expect rapid growth for a number of years, however normal growth on a smaller scale is very doable. I believe it will vary from region to region and even from neighborhood to neighborhood in many instances in large cities as this really is a local business.
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Most very well qualified buyers were unfairly priced out of the market due to abnormal home prices, inflated demand for most sub-par properties, and predatory lending practices didn’t help either. It’s time for us to go back to the basics. It’s only fair that hard working Americans have a fair shot at the American dream. Need I mention that the Iraq and Afghanistan wars aren’t helping either?
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The issue at the core of the recovery is how long it will take to get the number of qualified buyers back. We have lost many homebuyers. All the people in foreclosure can’t buy for at least 3 years because of bank guidelines. Then they will have to save the money too. Plus we have taken some investors out of the market. At what point will new home buyers equal the old foreclosed people is the answer to when the market will come back. My guess is 3 to 5 years.
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