Housing Bottom … Warton Prof. Says Not Yet!
Wharton School Professor, Susan Watcher talks about the housing market. This is a very good take on our current real estate market. The 2009 real estate market bottom crowd should throw in the towel and start perfecting their 2010 market bottom sound bites.
It always amazes me how real estate industry spokespersons are constantly interviewed and quoted about the latest news. Isn’t it obvious that they always say a variation of the same thing? “It’s always a great time to buy real estate!” … “High interest rates, get in now, before they move higher.” … ” Falling home values, great values, no one can pick the bottom, bargains abound!” … ” This is Southern California, real estate values ALWAYS move higher!”
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Housing is nowhere near bottom. It has at least 20% more to fall to become “reasonably” priced.
This is why I know housing is nowhere near bottom. There’s still people like this who believe housing can only go up – any downturn is just a hiccup. Heck, genius Cramer even called a bottom in 2007!!!
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I’m getting real tired of every pollyanna trying to call the housing bottom. Here’s an easy way to tell we have reach normal, sustainable pricing:
1) I by a property with 20% cash down, no fudging on this amount of any kind or assistance.
2) I rent said property to a tenant at a market rate
3) I have positive cash flow day one after P.I.T.I and associated costs
Until that day is reached (and we are no where near it) we are no where near a bottom.
Period…. End of story.
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I am surrounded by folks who think this is the time to buy. Just like I was 3 or 4 years ago. Based on home price fundamentals – I don’t see any possibility of a bottom for YEARS. Here, inventory is growing as foreclosures outpace sales.
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