Existing Home Sales Increase … Prices Fall
Sales of existing homes rose 5.5 percent, from a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.91 million units in August to 5.18 million in September, and have risen 1.4 percent on a year-over-year basis marking the first annual increase since late-2005.
On the other side of the coin, the median price for all existing homes sold last month fell 9.0 percent from year ago levels,
San Diego home sales: Upon checking with two major local escrow companies, it seems the bulk of the real estate sales in San Diego are bank owned or short sales. The escrow numbers showed that these distressed sales accounted for 62% to 70% of the new escrow business during August and September.
I personally feel this up-tick is a good sign, but by no means, a sign of an impending turnaround for the battered San Diego housing market.
National Association of Realtor's chief economist Lawrence Yun noted, "The current market is not being dominated by speculative investors. Rather, 80 percent of current buyers are purchasing a primary residence, which is a bit higher than historic norms."
Some prior related posts:
California Home Foreclosure Filings fall 32%
San Diego Real Esate Sales Increase
Increasing Spiral in Home Prices
San Diego Condominium Sales Price Appreciation
San Diego Real Estate Market … What Did You Expect?
San Diego Home Sales Up … San Diego Home Median Price Drops
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I don’t really trust these Realtor association press releases. Their bias is inherently obvious. It’s always a great time to buy real estate according to their research.
They never include the % of sales that are foreclosures. His statement about 80% of purchases being primary residences doesn’t mean much. Obviously there’s less speculation with tanking prices. I’m curious what the overall % of these sales were in foreclosure.
A few saavy buyers waited for prices to drop before buying, but I think it’ll be a brief boost. There are only so many people who can actually afford a home in the U.S., and we’re still way overbought.
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Biased Realtors??? Never! My favorite is their ad which says, “Now is a great time to buy or sell a home!” WHAT? Either it’s a great time to buy an asset (the asset will appreciate) OR it’s a great time to sell an asset (the asset will depreciate) — but it can’t be BOTH.
At least the stock brokers keep their message logically consistent (even if it’s historically misleading): “Buy buy buy, stocks always go up long term.”
Anyway, the other issue with home prices stabilizing is the overhead supply. How many people are waiting for prices to go up so they can sell? Quite a few. Which means, prices won’t go up again for a while. And all those sitting on a 33% loss now need a 50% gain just to get even.
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Of course they are going to say it’s a good to to buy or sell. Why? because they make money either way. We have been looking to buy a house now for 3 years and my trust for realtors is at a high time low. My wife thinks I’m paranoid but my instinct is they are trying to screw us. The reason I feel this way is because we see a home that has been on the market for over 200 days, we make an offer and then all of a sudden there are 3-4 more offers and we need to come up with our best and final. A month later the house is still unsold. We have decided to wait till we feel they are truly desperate because we are not.
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“They’re not making any more land”, “It’s different in (insert your city)”, “everyone wants to live here”, “buy now or be priced out forever”…etc. These are all the lines that the sheeple have bought into from the real estate industry and all their “experts”. Bottom, line: this is the tip of the iceberg. People seem to forget history, and how it has a way of repeating itself. This is not a 1 year “slump”, this is an end to a cycle of people’s pie-in-the-sky attitude about real estate. I cannot wait to buy a house in 3-5 years, when prices are REALLY good. If you buy now, you’re overpaying. Think about it: is 20% off an item that is marked up 400% a good deal?
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Why do we think jeopardizing our country’s future for short term gain is a good idea? As a whole, Americans live beyond their means and rely on….credit. You can’t expect Uncle Sam to “fix” all of your personal finance problems. Time to let the chips fall where they may…
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When I was buying a house about 4 years ago, you could not believe the zany loans I was offered. Interest only was big then…”all you need is to pay your interest then whatever you can afford on the principle.” Thank god I wasn’t foolish enough to do that; I’d be one of the many in foreclosure now.
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“We’re nearing a plateau” – this is wishful and dangerous thinking. We’re not even halfway through the subprime resets, and starting next year a wave of even more toxic Option ARMS will start resetting. Home prices will be falling for the next 10 years. Buy a home to ENJOY if you must, but don’t look at it as a get rich quick investment.
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