Case-Shiller National Real Estate Index
Case-Shiller National Real Estate Index
The latest Case-Shiller National Real Estate Index was just published today. This nationwide index is perhaps the most reliable indicator of residential real estate activity in the country. This 20-city index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.1% and was up 6.3% compared with a year ago.
The statistics from this index seem to show that although residential home prices are not declining, their upward momentum is certainly decelerating. The index’s 6.2% annual gain was down from 6.4% in the prior three-month period ending that ended in May. Also, the 20-city’s annual gain was down from 6.5%. Read more
San Diego Real Estate Appreciation
Reasons why a San Diego real estate bottom may not equate to San Diego real estate appreciation:
A. Very high unemployment rate in California.
B. California state government's massive debt.
C. More people are leaving California than moving to California.
D. 60% of Option ARMS (worth approx $750B in loans) of the entire nation are within California, the fact the majority of these loans will recast within the next 2-3 years.
E. Only about one in five can qualify for the average San Diego home (and that's after prices have already dropped almost 40% from their peak).
F. The myth of ‘you can’t lose investing in real estate’ has been broken.
G. San Diego recently has seen a softening in the rental market. San Diego MLS listings
San Diego Real Estate Appreciation Up 100%+
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A San Diego 2009 Real Estate Market Recovery?
Our lifestyles have to change, and it's going to be ugly combined with all the other factors (like $51 trillion in unfunded government liabilities).
If a San Diego housing recovery means getting back to 2005 highs, that seems unlikely in the next 2 to 3 years; maybe in 8 to 10 years. Stimulus packages and bailouts may allow the San Diego housing recovery pipe-dream to continue a little longer, but confidence is broken and mortgage lender responsibility is out the window.
I know this forecast is not something that any San Diego homeowner wants to hear right now, but it's a harsh possibility that we all have to accept.
It would be better for the news outlets, politicians, pundits, realtors, et al., to start telling people the truth, rather than filling their heads with pipe dreams, whilst they attempt to thwart reality and prolong the inevitable.
Needless to say, I hope I’m wrong and 2009 is the long awaited return to San Diego annual real estate appreciation.
Prior related posts:
San Diego Real Estate to Drop 20% in 2009?
San Diego Home Mortgage Lenders … Hardball or Common Sense?
Existing Home Sales Increase … Prices Fall
Commercial Real Estate Slump Possible in 2009
San Diego Real Esate Sales Increase
Next … Direct Housing Bailout?
New Home Construction Falls
California Home Prices Forecast to Fall 6% in 2009
San Diego Condominium Sales Price Appreciation