San Diego Housing Values Outlook
San Diego housing market
I can give about 10 good reasons on why buying San Diego this year may not be the optimum time:
1- Interest rates will eventually rise
2- Massive foreclosures flooding the market over the next 24 months
3- Federal stimulus is ending (though it could be extended)
4- Unemployment at 10% (In reality this is most likely closer to 17%) and rising
5- Pay cuts to those who are working
6- Next to impossible to get a loan without 20% down – who has that kind of cash laying around these days
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San Diego Home Values Drop 24.8%
The latest Case-Shiller report shows San Diego homes lost 24.8% in 2008. Ihe 20-city index showed that no area experienced year-over-year price gains, the ninth straight month that has happened.
Below is the Case-Shiller 20 city detail:
Home Prices, by Metro Area
(About the numbers: The Case Shiller indices have a base value of 100 in January 2000. So a current index value of 150 translates to a 50% appreciation rate since January 2000 for a typical home located within the metro market.)
Related posts by other bloggers:
San Diego Real Estate Blog » Blog Archive » 2009 San Diego Median …
– This means if you’re buying a home in these areas it could very well drop in value less than other areas of San Diego County. From January 2008 to January 2009 this was exactly what happened and is a good trend going into 2009 for home …
Foreclosure Sales and Pretend Pricing — The San Diego Home Blog
– Now, the lender pricing method, or as we call it, the pretend pricing method (PPM) is an entirely different and oft-mysterious approach to the whole conundrum of determining what the market value really is for a home. …
Luxury home prices keep falling in California as market continues …
– Meanwhile, San Diego, often cited as a bellwether in the California real estate market, saw luxury homes lose 8.3 percent in value over the past year and 2.2 percent since the third quarter — down to an average of 1.93 million dollars. …
San Diego Real Estate Reality Check
There is a still more greed in this market than there is fear. From the people that I talk to, it is an almost uncontrollable desire to rebuild their retirement/savings accounts that were based in the San Diego housing and equity markets. They do not realize that both the real estate and stock markets can go down for long periods at a time.
They have been brainwashed by the talking heads to be long term investors and to not worry about the short term hiccups that occur in the marketplace. This theory may have had some validity in past markets, but it is always far more prudent to set stop-loss points on any investment, than to suffer losses in the 40% range seen in the San Diego residential housing market and many stock portfolios in the current down-turn.
Certainly, the San Diego housing market has a good probability (based on the currently proposed incentives in the 2009 stimulus plan) of bottoming out this year. That does not mean that housing appreciation will come back any time soon. Yet, many people hope to recoup their real estate equity looses within a year or two of the bottom. To me, this is like the mom who gave birth to the eight babies stating she believed she could pay for their upbringing on her own, once she finished her schooling. San Diego real estate agents
Real Esate Outlook 2009 … Economist Gary Shilling
The San Diego real estate market turn-around in 2009 seems to be the usual New Year rose-colored glasses media 'talking head' consensus.
The already crumbling housing market could plummet an additional 20%, says Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co.
San Diego housing is already down over 30%, but according to Shilling, there's no near-term bottom in sight.
Excess inventory – nearly a year's worth supply – is the "mortal enemy" of any recovery in housing, says Shilling, who does not believe the Fed's efforts to lower mortgage rates will resolve the crisis.
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San Diego real estate – 2009 the Option ARM resets
Many local mortgage lenders feel that San Diego & Southern California were the prime locations for the adjustable Option ARM loans. Now, just when many believed the mortgage crisis was winding down, San Diego real estate will be facing another major obsticle.
Our first post on this problem was San Diego Real Estate … The Coming Next Wave of Foreclosures, published on 7-17-08. It took a little while, but now the major media outlets have picked up on this problem. San Diego Realtors
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San Diego Home Values Drop Over 30%
MDA DataQuick just reported median price of all homes sold fell nearly 6 percent from October to November, dipping to a 6-1/2 year low to $305,000. Since November 2007, the median price of all homes sold was off more than 30 percent. Plus, the median price was off more than 41 percent from the market peak of $517,000 in November 2005.