Home Sales Fall
Home Sales Fall
Pending home sales fall for fifth straight month
According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the group’s index that tracks the number of homes under contract to be sold fell 1.2% in March from the previous month and sank 8.2% from a year ago.
Home Sales Fall
“The falling contract signings are implying that multiple offers will soon dissipate and be replaced by much calmer and normalized market conditions,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said in a press statement. “As it stands, the sudden large gains in mortgage rates have reduced the pool of eligible homebuyers, and that has consequently lowered buying activity.”
Personally, I believe the most important take away from this story is the fact that pending home sales have now fallen for five straight months in a row!
For my regular readers, this news is not surprising, because I’ve been forecasting the end of the US housing market bubble since last year! I believe the government handouts and eviction moratorium, just kicked the can down the road into 2022.
Currently, the slow down or drop in pending home sales is pretty much being attributed to the rising interest rates. But, five months ago when this drop first started to develop, interest rates were still much lower than they are now. So, I believe this downturn was inevitable because a lot of major real estate markets have seen such tremendous appreciation in home prices that the majority of the local residents can’t afford the typical home. Yes, when a large percentage of local area residents are priced out of the real estate market, it’s typically a red flag preceding 180 degrees change in the markets direction.
Now, combine this factor with escalating home mortgage rates (A week ago, mortgage rates increased to 5.11%, 2 percentage points higher than at the start of the year, and the highest level since April 2010) and an unprecedented real inflation factor (I believe the real inflation rate is much closer to 20% then the government’s reported 8.9%) and you have three major red flags flying for the United States real estate market. No, I don’t believe this is a slowdown, or somewhat ‘return to normal’, . . . This is what the popping of a major real estate market bubble looks like!
Buckle up your seatbelt because the downward ride has just started!
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