Layoffs and Unemployment are hitting us here in NYC hard. Being the epicenter for the financial crisis is not helping the matter. Rents are down and vacancy is up, thing are not looking to improve into 2009.
Comment by dave in NYC — December 5, 2008 @ 1:55 pm
Home prices do not double in price on average every ten years. There is no evidence to support such a statement. S&P case shriller home index which goes back to 1890 found that SFR prices went up at the rate of inflation over time. If they do double in any short period it’s called a asset bubble and values return to medium as the bubble implodes. OFHEO also shows long term prices run with inflation and return to normal price levels rather than continuing to rise. In order for RE to double every 10 years average income would also need to rise with it, which if you haven’t noticed doesn’t happen and when it does as during the 70’s yield on bonds jump into the teen’s and the FED pushes up interest rates causing home prices to decline.
We’re only seeing the last of the 1 and first of the 3 year ARMs getting their bumps now. Remember that even though housing was slowing refinancing were very strong. Not only that but most people that played that game pulled equity out too which means they essentially lump themselves in with the last of the buyers. Even if you say the top was at the end of ’06, and it wasn’t, we still need to get through all of ’09 just to clear out the last of the 3 year ARMs. And the only way those people don’t get hit hard is if property values not just stabilize but actually rise a bit as lending standards are tighter and they will have to come up with some equity.
Homes will always be unaffordable to the average person in high priced CA as long as government subsidize home owners in the form of mortgage tax deductions, and Fannie Mae bailouts. Remove the interest tax deduction and watch the prices correct 50%. This place a bottom on home prices and increase home ownership than further government meddling. The issue is affordability, not unemployment. Prices are still too high due to government tax policies and bad lending practices.
Dummies should have made sure they could afford houses before buying them. Lenders should have been more analytical is choosing borrowers who really had the capacity to repay loans at whatever the maximum interest rate could be after any teaser rate ended. Fools–all of the players in this drama are fools.
Compare the value of Real Estate in Palo Alto to the DotCom stocks … Real Estate will start ticking back up in the next year or 2 … Anyone think Priceline.com will ever be worth a tenth of its former high?
Everyone likes to talk about the foreclosures as if it’s a bad thing when the reality is that it’s an incredibly good thing. All the bad loans inflated the market well beyond what it should have been. As these people default on their bad loans the price of housing corrects, as it should, and maybe the rest of us get to buy. This story is good news and it should be reported as such. Or, would we all be better off if the government steps in and inflates pricing again.
Buying a home is a long term deal. I bought 10 years ago, value has doubled (a couple of years ago I could say tripled), and in 5 years house will be paid off. No more mortgage! Try that with a rental! Yeah… commute sucks.
Layoffs and Unemployment are hitting us here in NYC hard. Being the epicenter for the financial crisis is not helping the matter. Rents are down and vacancy is up, thing are not looking to improve into 2009.
Comment by dave in NYC — December 5, 2008 @ 1:55 pm
Home prices do not double in price on average every ten years. There is no evidence to support such a statement. S&P case shriller home index which goes back to 1890 found that SFR prices went up at the rate of inflation over time. If they do double in any short period it’s called a asset bubble and values return to medium as the bubble implodes. OFHEO also shows long term prices run with inflation and return to normal price levels rather than continuing to rise. In order for RE to double every 10 years average income would also need to rise with it, which if you haven’t noticed doesn’t happen and when it does as during the 70’s yield on bonds jump into the teen’s and the FED pushes up interest rates causing home prices to decline.
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Comment by gold price — December 8, 2008 @ 2:33 pm
We’re only seeing the last of the 1 and first of the 3 year ARMs getting their bumps now. Remember that even though housing was slowing refinancing were very strong. Not only that but most people that played that game pulled equity out too which means they essentially lump themselves in with the last of the buyers. Even if you say the top was at the end of ’06, and it wasn’t, we still need to get through all of ’09 just to clear out the last of the 3 year ARMs. And the only way those people don’t get hit hard is if property values not just stabilize but actually rise a bit as lending standards are tighter and they will have to come up with some equity.
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Comment by San Diego dentist — December 8, 2008 @ 2:34 pm
Homes will always be unaffordable to the average person in high priced CA as long as government subsidize home owners in the form of mortgage tax deductions, and Fannie Mae bailouts. Remove the interest tax deduction and watch the prices correct 50%. This place a bottom on home prices and increase home ownership than further government meddling. The issue is affordability, not unemployment. Prices are still too high due to government tax policies and bad lending practices.
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Comment by Tijuana dentist — December 8, 2008 @ 2:34 pm
Dummies should have made sure they could afford houses before buying them. Lenders should have been more analytical is choosing borrowers who really had the capacity to repay loans at whatever the maximum interest rate could be after any teaser rate ended. Fools–all of the players in this drama are fools.
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Comment by Acne treatments — December 8, 2008 @ 2:35 pm
The perfect storm of a complete financial collapse is a couple months away. Be ready for a wild ride!
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Comment by Cosmetic surgery San Diego — December 8, 2008 @ 2:36 pm
Compare the value of Real Estate in Palo Alto to the DotCom stocks … Real Estate will start ticking back up in the next year or 2 … Anyone think Priceline.com will ever be worth a tenth of its former high?
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Comment by San Diego Dermatology Doctor — December 8, 2008 @ 2:37 pm
I think that in the long run, everything will probably be okay. The government will save us.
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Comment by san diego real estate mls — December 8, 2008 @ 2:41 pm
Everyone likes to talk about the foreclosures as if it’s a bad thing when the reality is that it’s an incredibly good thing. All the bad loans inflated the market well beyond what it should have been. As these people default on their bad loans the price of housing corrects, as it should, and maybe the rest of us get to buy. This story is good news and it should be reported as such. Or, would we all be better off if the government steps in and inflates pricing again.
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Comment by California family lawyers — December 8, 2008 @ 2:42 pm
Buying a home is a long term deal. I bought 10 years ago, value has doubled (a couple of years ago I could say tripled), and in 5 years house will be paid off. No more mortgage! Try that with a rental! Yeah… commute sucks.
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Comment by San Diego lawyers — December 8, 2008 @ 2:47 pm