San Diego Housing Problem is Getting Worse
San Diego housing market
The number of delinquencies is a dynamic that obviously changes relative to the environment. I apologize for not providing some insight into the hard numbers that your above post requests. Where are we in this process and how much of the problem has already been written off? Is it getting worse, better, or going to be the same and for how long? Read more 
San Diego real estate 2010 2nd. Half Outlook … double-dips
San Diego real estate market … double-dips!
San Diego real estate forecast
San Diego home prices have risen for eleven consecutive months. Most major media outlets in San Diego are proclaiming that our real estate decline bottomed in April 2009.
A recent headline noted San Diego real estate price appreciation outpaced the rest of the nation. Another headline stated that San Diego County house prices rose 11.7% in April 2010, as compared to April 2009. This was proclaimed to be the fastest rate of annual appreciation increase in the nation. Plus, San Diego County home prices have been rebounding for the past year after their 40% decline from the top of the market in 2005. Read more
San Diego Housing 2010 Forecast
San Diego housing forecast
How easy it would be to go along with the Industry line and jump on the over-hyped small increases in real estate sales and in some cases monthly home price increases. But, to me at least, it seems very clear that home price stabilization is temporary unless something new is done.
Here are some facts to help project what housing will be like in 2010:
- 13.54% of the 44.7 million mortgages tracked by the Mortgage Bankers Association are delinquent.
- 7.57 million homeowners are delinquent, applying the same percentage to the 11.2 million mortgages not tracked by the MBA (55.9 million total mortgages in the U.S.). That means that 10% of all homeowners in the country are delinquent.
- Based on historical trend analysis by Amherst Securities, 6.94 million homes that are already delinquent will be liquidated, which is more than a one year supply of distressed sales poised to hit the market sometime in 2010 and 2011. During Q1 2005, that figure was only 1.27 million.
- Defaults continue to grow at the rate of approximately 300,000 per month, assuring that the number of distressed sales will grow and will continue through 2012.
San Diego real estate agents
Real Esate Outlook 2009 … Economist Gary Shilling
The San Diego real estate market turn-around in 2009 seems to be the usual New Year rose-colored glasses media 'talking head' consensus.
The already crumbling housing market could plummet an additional 20%, says Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co.
San Diego housing is already down over 30%, but according to Shilling, there's no near-term bottom in sight.
Excess inventory – nearly a year's worth supply – is the "mortal enemy" of any recovery in housing, says Shilling, who does not believe the Fed's efforts to lower mortgage rates will resolve the crisis.
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