The Paulson Plan – Still Wrong
Government Bail-Out – Risk & Reward
Some folks took risks on buying homes 2-3 years ago with the thought that home prices would continue to increase and they would make off with a good ROI (sometimes with no money down at all). Others took the risk of not buying and possibly seeing the prices of housing running up to a level that those individuals could be priced out of the market forever (like the 1970's steep increases). Paulson/Bernanke are making it sound like they are alleviating risks took by investors -but this can only be done at the expense of others that took risks (and, should be rewarded accordingly when markets show favor to their strategy). Those that have saved money are being robbed through purposeful devaluation of the currency by those that believe that some folks risk taking is more important than others. This is not right -it can not even appear to be right. There is rhetoric which can be used to try & justify such events -but, even the rhetoric doesn't feel right.
So, when a neighbor doesn't pay his VISA card bill at the end of the month, we should all chip in? VISA factors in potential losses -if they do a bad job of this, they might go out of business and people with use AMEX or other companies will pop up instead. In fact, when folks don't pay their credit card bill, VISA (well, via the banks that actually hold the debt) sell that "bad debt" off to collection agencies. Check into it -there's a whole industry out there around bad debt collection. And, guess what, it doesn't involve the debt holder knocking on a few neighbors doors asking them to chip in. I hope that many adamantly oppose both the bailout bill and the whole theory around this anti-capitalistic crap -and specifically harass their elected officials until they get the idea.
What I do KNOW is that Bernanke said quite emphatically at his confirmation hearings that we were not in a housing bubble. How he could reach that conclusion, even in 2004 is a mystery. And he was clearly right on this wasn't he.
New Govt. Financial Dictator
In the Bloomberg News Historian John Steele Gordon, talking about Henry Paulson’s plan to ask Congress for free-reigning powers to buy $700 billion in bad mortgage investments from U.S. financial companies said: “It sounds like Paulson is asking to be a financial dictator, for a limited period of time.”
Yale Professor … House Price Decline Could Be Worse than Great Depression
In a Yahoo Finance interview with Yale professor and MacroMarkets chief economist Robert Shiller he made some grim housing forecast while promoting his book The Subprime Solution. Three points Shiller made are:
- Home price declines are already approaching those in the Great Depression, when they plunged 30% during the 1930s. With prices already down almost 20%, it's not a stretch to think we might exceed that drop this time around.
- There are about 10 million homeowners whose debt is higher than their home value, which has broad implications for how Americans feel about their wealth and spending habits (read: more pressure on consumer spending).
- The current hopeful consensus — that house prices will bottom soon and then begin to recover — is most likely a dream. Housing markets don't usually have "V-shaped" recoveries. And even if house prices stabilize in nominal terms, after adjusting for inflation, most homeowners will continue to lose money.
- A few of our prior posts about professor Shiller:
San Diego Home Values Fall 16.7%
Standard & Poor’s Index Shows Home-Price Declines As The Largest on Record
50% Home Price Declines Possible?
National Home Price Index is @ It’s Lowest Point in Its Reported History
Housing Bubble … Investors Opinion
Yale economist Says San Diego Home Values Down 10% From One Year Ago!
Home Prices — Largest Drop in 16 Years!
Believe The Real Estate Industry “Experts” … I Don’t Think So!
When you have an economist for any trade group in involved in sales, you're never going to get an accurate forecast. After all, it's not accuracy they strive for, but rather the rose-colored glasses view of it's always a good time to buy real estate.
This is nothing new. But, what still surprises me is how all the media outlets take these faulted forecasts as gospel.
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San Diego Real Estate Pent-Up Demand .. It’s Real & About To Kick-In
The latest San Diego sales mantra goes like this: “Sure the market is down, but it’s been down for a few years now and there is terrific demand to purchase building up. Now could be the best time to get into the San Diego real estate market before that pent-up demand kicks in.” Read more


