San Diego County Home Prices
San Diego home prices
San Diego County home prices fell in September for the second month after 15 consecutive monthly increases, according to Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index report.
The resale home value of a typical house fell 1 percent in September from August. The value had dropped 0.6 percent in August from July.
However, September’s home price was still 5 percent above that of a year ago, according to the index, which reports home prices for 20 cities and the nation as a whole.
San Diego County houses priced under $314,451 slipped 0.9 percent from August; houses priced from $314,451 to $474,176 dropped 2 percent in value; while those priced above $474,176 rose 0.5 percent in value.
The national quarterly index, which measures home prices in the nine U.S. census regions, dropped 2 percent in the third quarter from the previous quarter.
“While housing prices are still above their spring 2009 lows, the end of the tax incentives and still active foreclosures appear to be weighing down the market,” the monthly report stated.
Real Estate Home Value Reality Check
home values forecast
Fewer homeowners expect to see the value of their homes decline in the year ahead, but they also believe gains are unlikely, according to a survey by Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan. About 15 percent of homeowners say they expect their home’s value to decline, down from 26 percent who said the same in the first quarter of 2009.
Housing Prices Set To Dip Again In 2010
Home prices appear to have stopped falling, but are we out of the housing woods yet? Robert Shiller, a founder of the S&P Case-Shiller home-price indexes.
Home Values Down For 2009
housing market
According to a just released report from the Zillow website, U.S. home values fell by $489 billion in the first 11 months of 2009. Although this is a huge value decline, it’s actually an improvement from 2008, when home values shed $3.6 trillion.
Zillow’s chief economist, Stan Humphries said: “Home values stabilized significantly during the second half of 2009, with the total dollar value of U.S. homes increasing since June. Most housing markets across the country had a good summer, spurred largely by the government’s tax credits for homebuyers, combined with very low mortgage rates.”
What Your Home Will Be Worth in 2012
A recent story in Businessweek, with information from the Brookfield, Wisc.-based research firm Fiserv, to predicted the value of median priced homes in the U.S. in 2012. The article stated: “We weighed historical data against current trends to get a bead on which way the markets might jump at one-year increments. By combining data, we were able to get a pretty good idea of what home prices would be in three years’ time. Across the board, real estate prices will continue to drop before rising slightly by the fourth quarter of 2011.”
Promotions Unlimited took the Businessweek predictions and produced the chart below for California and five other western states:
Home Values 2012
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Housing Starts for April
Last Tuesday, Housing Starts for April came in at an annual rate of 458,000 units, a drop of 12.8%. Ignored by the media was the fact that ALL the decline came from a 46.1% drop in multiple-family starts, which are volatile from month to month. Single-family home starts were actually UP 2.8% for April. Building permits, a harbinger of future starts, fell 3.3% in April, to a 494,000 unit annual rate. But this was also ALL due to a drop in multiple-family units. Permits for single-family homes were actually UP 3.6%.
The volatility of multiple-family starts makes it likely that April’s move down will be followed by a May rebound. The trend to note is that single-family starts are climbing. After bottoming in January and staying flat for February, they’re now UP two months in a row. Experts say the recovery in starts will begin gradually, given the size of excess inventories. Some also say a major home building turnaround could begin late this year. The fact i s, with population growth and knock-downs, we’ll need about 1.6 million starts a year (a 250% hike!) just to return to normal. No wonder the Builder Confidence index shot up two points in May, to its highest level since last September.
Finally, a recent survey of realtors revealed only 29% felt home values would decline in the next six months, while half think they’ll stay where they are – and 22% see home values rising! So there.
>> Review of Last Week
INCHING UPWARD… Things started off in the markets very nicely last Monday, but as the week wore on, stocks lost ground as they reacted to some of the less encouraging developments being reported. But these were offset by positive news items whose influence prevailed enough to keep all three indexes ahead (barely) when things closed down Friday for the holiday weekend.
Might as well get the negatives out of the way. The fall in housing starts and building permits disturbed investors in spite of the upward trend in single-family activity covered above. Although weekly initial unemployment claims were down, as they have been for three of the last four weeks, continuing claims remained high, at 6.6 million. Wednesday the minutes from the Fed’s April meeting came out with lower real GDP projections for this year, 2010 and 2011. The U.K.’s sovereign debt rating outlook was downgraded to negative, which hurt the dollar and boosted commodities like crude oil which went up over 9%.
So enough with the sad stuff. The week began with Bank of America getting its stock added to Goldman Sachs’ Conviction Buy List. Then home improvement retailer Lowe’s came in with better than expected earnings and guidance. A slew of other retailers also beat quarterly earnings estimates, including Target, Saks, TJX, Home Depot, Sears and Gap. Guess consumers actually are out there spending!
Things are still far from normal, so the Dow squeaked up a scant 0.1% for the week, to 8277.32; the S&P 500 gained 0.5%, to 887.00; and the NASDAQ went up 0.7%, to 1692.01.
Prices in the bond market were under pressure in a shortened session Friday, though things weren’t too bad for the mortgage backed security we watch most closely. The FNMA 30-Year 4.0% bond, which is closely tied to mortgage rates, ended Friday at $99.41, down 12bp. Mortgage interest rates fell slightly last week, remaining below 5% for more than two months, as tracked by20Freddie Mac’s weekly survey of conforming mortgage rates.
This post information was provided by: Greg Brooks southwest area manager San Diego Mortgage Network (800) 287-8292 x 225 San Diego real estate