The Greater Depression – Jim Rogers Interview
Just when you believed the Government throwing money at every business that made poor decisions was the answer, along comes Jim Rogers to set you straight.
In 1970, Rogers joined Arnhold & S. Bleichroeder, where he met George Soros. That same year, Rogers and Soros founded the Quantum Fund. During the following 10 years the portfolio gained 4200% while the S&P advanced about 47%. It was one of the first truly international funds.
This video, produced on March 1, 2009 is of Jim Rogers interviewed in Australia. Mr. Rogers explains why we need to face reality. Quotes from the interview: "If you don't face reality and you sit there and twiddle along and believe Mr Bernanke that everything is OK, you are going to get hit by a two-by-four and it's going to hurt very, very, very badly, so I would urge you to be prepared."
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Obama’s stimulus package … reason for optimism?
The Obama stimulus package made it through the House, but every Republican voted against it and so did 11 Democrats.
The House members discussion on the stimulus bill had a number of good comments. One was by Rep. Roscoe Bartlett, an 82-year-old Maryland Republican, when he thought back to the Great Depression he said: "I don't remember any of the many government programs affecting the course of the Depression. Government programs didn't work then, I don't know why we think they would work now. Mr. President, I think our obsessive borrowing has fully mortgaged my kids and my grandkids. Now we're working on mortgaging my two great-grandkids. Mr. President, I think it's more than a little bit selfish to try to solve our economic problems which we created by burdening future generations yet to be born." The House chamber burst into applause. San Diego MLS listings
Housing Bail-Out … Pass or Depression
Jim Cramer is the host of CNBC's "Mad Money" and co-founder of TheStreet.com. Cramer has also been a contributor to New York magazine, and an occasional contributor to Time magazine. The outspoken stock market analyst.
Just recently Jim Cramer said:"The Paulson plan is awful, it stinks and it's nasty… but it's also far better than anything else." Cramer defended the plan, which he said, needs to pass to avoid another Great Depression. San Diego home sales
The San Diego California Real Estate Great Depression
San Diego California real estate property values in many neighborhoods have now surpassed the average nationwide 30% drop seen during the1930's.
San Diego California resale condominium appreciation
In the table below, www.brokerforyou.com looked at selected San Diego neighborhoods that
had 10 or more closed sales in July 2008 & 2007.
The sales data was compiled by DataQuick Information Systems & published in the 8-24-08 edition of the San Diego Union-Tribune.
One should keep in mind the above chart is just for a one year period (July 2007 vs. July 2008) and
San Diego home values topped out around the Summer of 2005!
Below is a similar chart Brokerforyou.com produced and published in 2007 & comparing San Diego condo values from July 2006 to July 2007.
When one compares the condo value drops from the above chart with our latest chart for 2008, the magnitude of the real value loss can be clearly seen. As an example, in Clairemont for the latest one year period the value loss was 36.2%. Now add that to the approximately 20% loss show directly above, and we have a two year loss of just over 56%! The college area condo value drop from 2006 to 2007 was very modest. But, for the latest one year period alone it was down a starraging 51.6%!
Lastly, I would note that these figures do not take into account the very prevalent seller concession (usually payment of thousands in the buyer's closing costs) necessitated by an ultra strong buyers market place.
A few of our related prior posts were:
Yale Professor … House Price Decline Could Be Worse than Great Depression
Survey Says Home Values Must Fall Another 14%
Jumbo Financing and the Impact on The San Diego Real Estate Market
Believe the local San Diego ‘experts’ that subprime delinquencies are slowing?
More homeowners than ever are selling at a loss!
San Diego County Foreclosures up 125% from 2007
Yale Professor … House Price Decline Could Be Worse than Great Depression
In a Yahoo Finance interview with Yale professor and MacroMarkets chief economist Robert Shiller he made some grim housing forecast while promoting his book The Subprime Solution. Three points Shiller made are:
- Home price declines are already approaching those in the Great Depression, when they plunged 30% during the 1930s. With prices already down almost 20%, it's not a stretch to think we might exceed that drop this time around.
- There are about 10 million homeowners whose debt is higher than their home value, which has broad implications for how Americans feel about their wealth and spending habits (read: more pressure on consumer spending).
- The current hopeful consensus — that house prices will bottom soon and then begin to recover — is most likely a dream. Housing markets don't usually have "V-shaped" recoveries. And even if house prices stabilize in nominal terms, after adjusting for inflation, most homeowners will continue to lose money.
- A few of our prior posts about professor Shiller: