California Housing … Is This A Bottom?

It’s estimated that 75% of mortgage applications are from refinanced loans. Realtytrac reports that banks have another 500,000 homes and are paying for servicing to keep them off the market, thus falsely inflating prices. Unemployment has risen from 8.5 to 11%, which also has an effect on housing delinquencies. Plus, Zillow estimates that nearly a quarter of the mortgages in the entire U.S. are underwater.

Another way to look at declining housing starts is the closer to zero new starts go, the sooner the unsold inventory will go, and then price stabilization should occur. At that point, we’re at restart.

A huge factor is the mortgage and commercial real estate loan sector of the economy which has just begun to heat up as it pertains to defaults. House mortgage defaults are not slated to peak until late 2010 – early 2011, with a corresponding drop in asset value. The commercial real estate sector crises is going to make the sub-prime defaults look like a cake walk! Lots more red ink is on the way.

I apologize but I’m not buying a housing recovery this year at all.

The other side of the coin is the fact that in March, in the hard hit Las Vegas real estate market, sales jumped from 1,954 to 3,626 units in a year. Real estate sales have also picked up in California cities like Sacramento and Stockton. This seems to be the first signs of a real estate housing bottom.                                        Little Italy San Diego real estate