New Home Sales … Lowest Rate Ever
The Commerce Department reported this week that December sales of new one-family houses fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 331,000, the lowest since data collection began in 1963. This sales rate was 14.7 percent below the revised November figure and 44.8 percent below the December 2007 estimate.
Some good news news from the report was a drop in the number of new homes for sale. The inventory of homes fell 10.1 percent to 357,000, the lowest since September 2003. San Diego real estate agents
Housing Prices 2009 Forecast
Ken Rosen a prominent housing economist and professor at the University of California at Berkeley belives home prices could drop an additional 6% to 7% this year. Rosen thinks housing prices are only about three-quarters complete.
Rosen said: "I worry about the cumulative decline of all the job losses leading to a second wave of foreclosures. So we have to stop this downward spiral."
Dean Baker, co-founder of the Center for Economic & Policy Research in Washington, D.C., said: "All the evidence is showing prices dropping at a more rapid rate, it's not a good time for people to buy houses when they're losing jobs at this rate."
Housing Market … No Bottom in Sight
The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index, reported that prices of existing single-family homes in 20 major metro areas continued their rapid descent in November, down 18.2% year-over-year. The index has declined steadily for 28 consecutive months.
The 20-city composite index set a new record for price declines, down 18.2% from a year earlier, compared with October's 18.1%. The metro areas with the biggest year-to-year price declines were Phoenix (-32.9%), Las Vegas (-31.6%), and San Francisco (-30.8%).
David M. Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P, said in a news release: "The freefall in residential real estate continued through November 2008. Since August 2006, the 10-City and 20-City composites have declined every month." San Diego California real estate
Commercial Real Estate Trouble in 2009
U.S. Bancorp (USB) Q408 conference call the bank reiterated that it is the highest rated large U.S. bank: We now are alone as the most highly rated bank of our large bank peer group with a AA rating and a stable outlook with S&P with an AA2 and stable outlook with Moody’s.
From this same conference call U.S. Bancorp said about commercial real estate:
Nonperforming assets increased by $489 million or 32.8%… The majority of the increase in the core bank portfolio was related to residential construction, residential mortgages and related industries. However, the economic slow down also had an impact on some of our commercial and retail customers.
I think in 2009 we will have a fairly steady amount of losses in commercial real estate attributed to just more traditional commercial real estate across our national footprint. San Diego real estate agent
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Home Sales Up … Home Prices Drop
The New York-based Conference Board's monthly forecast released today, showed that existing home sales rose 6.5 percent in December, as the median home sales price plunged 15.3 percent. The decline is the largest year-over-year drop in records going back to 1968.
The Conference Board also said unemployment could rise to 9 percent from 7.2 percent as the country remains in an intense recession through spring. San Diego Realtor