San Diego Real Estate Predictions 2009…Watch Out For The Bull!
With the median one year San Diego home price decline approximately 30% and the San Diego residential housing market having been in a steady decline since the summer of 2005, renting has been far better than purchasing.
When one loses 30% or more home equity in one year, don't buy the old cop-out line of "in the long run the housing prices will return to their old highs." For San Diego residential real estate, this is the worst market since the great depression. Unlike a 'normal' correction or pull-back, this once in a lifetime evaporation of real estate values will not soon be forgotten. Partially because of the trauma inflicted on the public's perception of ever-escalating real estate values, will the San Diego real estate market 'snap back' anytime soon.
First the decline has to bottom and then it will most probably take a few years of base building prior to any return of meaningful appreciation.
Naturally, at this New Year period, the glowing forecasts for a real estate recovery have already started. Will these pundits be right this time around? You'll have to draw your own conclusions. Why not see how some of the prior forecasts really paned out:
On July 14, 2008 Barron's magazine said: "Home prices are about to bottom." Well, since than, the decline has only accelerated.
Look at this chart for a graphic example of prior real estate market forecasts:
Often when real estate values go south, it's typical to hear the industry blame the media for making the situation seem worse than the reality. The truth is, for our current home equity bust, the reality, in many cases, is far worse than the local reporting.
It seems that finally the preponderance of evidence has caused the die-hard San Diego real estate bulls to admit the folly of their over optimism. Now a number of these same misguided forecasters are forecasting a 2009 turnaround. Perhaps that would have a faint possibility if this was a 'regular' correction. However, this huge erosion of San Diego home equity was is far from typical.
Realistically, I feel the best 2009 can bring to the San Diego housing market is some easing in the rate of depreciation with a possible beginning of a bottoming process starting late in the year or early 2010. La Jolla real estate
Other bloggers Real Estate Predictions For 2009:
TheStar.com | News & Features | What's in store for housing market …- After 2009, he is forecasting that the market will "flatline" for three or possibly four years, with not much activity, similar to the 1992 to 1997 period in the Toronto market after the last real estate bubble burst. …
Wilting real estate market makes rent-to-own an option – WalletPop …- Wilting real estate market makes rent-to-own an option. Zac Bissonnette Jan 2nd 2009 at 8:00AM. Text SizeAAA. Filed under: Real Estate. Investor's Business Daily reports that "Across the country, particularly in overbuilt or struggling …
Charlottesville Regional Housing Inventory Update for January 2009 …- by Jim Duncan on January 3, 2009. This is a post to provide a baseline going forward rather than a comprehensive analysis. We all know where the Charlottesville regional real estate market stands; predicting tomorrow, next week, …
The San Francisco Marina Real Estate Market Report: December 2008- Happy 2009 to all! I kept hearing in the month of December that no real estate sells in the month of December. Who would want to buy or sell during the holidays? Well, there are actually properties that sold in the month of December in …
The housing market in 2009? It’s anyone’s guess – Bizjournals.com …- The housing market in 2009? It’s anyone’s guessBizjournals.com, NC – 1 hour agoWe asked three experts in the local housing market what to expect.
Greater Hartford Real Estate Blog » Greater Hartford’s 2008 Real …- Greater Hartford’s 2008 Real Estate Market Statistics. January 3rd, 2009 | Written by Amy Bergquist. So, just how bad was the 2008 real estate market in the Greater Hartford area? The numbers are in. They’re not necessarily pretty, …
Cape San Blas Real Estate Blog » Cape San Blas Real Estate Market …- Cape San Blas real estate market information including Indian Pass, Port St. Joe, C-30 Corridor and Florida's beautiful Forgotten Coast.
UCI economist eyes housing recovery in 2011 or later – Lansner on …- HAHAHAHAHAHA. pdu Says: January 3rd, 2009 at 5:10 pm. A background in Wisconsin real estate and an MIT-Harvard “Urban Studies” degree qualifies this guy for commenting on the future of the OC real estate market in exactly what way? …
The real estate market – 2009 « India Real Estate Tracker- The real estate market – 2009. Posted by paragjani on January 2, 2009. The global financial meltdown has had the first level impact – that of shocking the world and causing the global markets to crash. Once the markets recaliberate …
4 Reasons To Get in the Ann Arbor Real Estate Game in 2009 | Ann …- 9 Housing-Market Head Winds for 2009. Recession (Started 12/07…in 2008 we sold MORE real estate than in 2007!) Higher Unemployment (still over 93% of folks are employed!) Consumer Confidence (perception v. reality: “we’re fine, …
Charlotte Home prices hold up well in 2008 … tops in Case Shiller?- Charlotte Real Estate Market Report 2008. According to the Case Shiller report, Charlotte home prices rose through the spring and early summer, before making very modest drops beginning in August. The September- October 2008 decline of …
talk | discussion | StreetEasy New York Real Estate Search- Real Estate Predictions For 2009. 2 comments. stevejhx. about 1 hour ago. ignore this person. The year 2008 saw prices fall and foreclosures rise, but will 2009 see the real estate market get back on track? In a word, not likely. …
Home Values Fall 18% in October
The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-city housing index dropped a record 18 percent from October last year. This is the largest drop for the index since its inception in 2000. The smaller 10-city index also tumbled 19.1 percent, its biggest decline in its 21-year history.
Both of these indices have recorded year-over-year declines for 22 straight months. None of the 20 cities in the Case-Shiller index saw annual price gains in October — for the seventh consecutive month — and 14 of them posted record year-over-year declines.
Three metro areas with the largest drops were Phoenix with almost a 33% drop, Las Vegas with nearly a 32% fall, and San Francisco witha 31% decline.
Also today, the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence index dropped to 38 in December from a revised 44.7 in November, well below the expectation of 45 of economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters.
Recent prior related posts:
Home Prices Plunge in 3rd. Quarter
Home Value Index – Largest Drop In History
Real Estate Record Home Price Declines
San Diego Real Estate – 5th Largest Decline Through July
Survey Says Home Values Must Fall Another 14%
May Home Prices Take Biggest Drop Ever
La Jolla Bank Owned Foreclosure
FANNIE MAE STREAMLINES MORTGAGE MODIFICATION PROGRAMS
Fannie Mae recently announced the Streamlined Modification Program (SMP) is now available to Fannie Mae servicers and borrowers as an option to help prevent foreclosures. The SMP enables services to change the terms of a loan to reduce a borrower's monthly mortgage payment, including taxes, insurance, and HOA dues, to an amount equal to 38 percent of the borrower's gross monthly income.
The changes in terms may include one or more of the following: Adding the accrued interest, escrow advances and costs to the principal balance of the loan, if allowed by state law; extending the length of the mortgage loan as appropriate; reducing the mortgage loan interest rate; forbearing on a portion of the principal, which will require the borrower to make a balloon payment when the loan matures, is paid off, or is refinanced.
Servicers will be sending modification solicitation letters beginning this month to borrowers believed to be eligible for the program. La Jolla bank owned real estate
California existing home sales increased 83.2% in November
Who says the laws of supply and demand do not work in today's real estate market? California home sales increased 83.2 percent in November compared with the same period a year ago, according to the latest housing report from the California Association of Realtors.
In my opinion, the main factors for this huge pick up in real estate sales are the very attractive prices combined with exceptional low 30 year fixed rate mortgages and the availibality of 3% down FHA financing.
From my estimates, the majority of these existing home sales are foreclosures or pre-forclosures. Plus, keep in mind, a pick up in sales is only the first step in forming a bottom to our real estate bust.
The other part of the California Association of Realtors report shows the median price of an existing, single-family detached home in California during November 2008 was $285,680, a 41.8 percent decrease from the revised $490,511 median for November 2007. The November 2008 median price fell 5.3 percent compared with October's revised $301,740 median price. San Diego Realtors
New Home Sales Hit 17-Year-Low
According to the US Commerce Department, nationally, sales of new homes slowed to their lowest level in 17 years in November, while new home prices dropped by the biggest amount in eight months.
The year-on-year decline in home sales in November – comparing it with November 2007 – was 35.3%.
In another report on housing, the National Association of Realtors said existing home sales fell 8.6 percent to an annual rate of 4.49 million in November, from a downwardly revised pace of 4.91 million in October. Also, this report showed the median sales price fell 13.2 percent in November to $181,300, from $208,000 a year ago. That was the biggest year-over-year drop on records going back to 1968 and probably the biggest drop since the Great Depression.
The sales weakness in November reflected a 16.4 percent drop in the Midwest and a 7.1 percent fall in the South. Sales were up 14.3 percent in the Northeast and 11 percent in the West.
Nationally, the National Association of Realtors estimates that sales of distressed properties made up 45 percent of all property sales in November.
Related prior posts:
San Diego Real Estate Recovery in 2009?
San Diego Home Values Drop Over 30%
Short Sales – A Great Deal For Buyers?
HOME PENDING SALES FALL
Home Renting vs. Home Owning
San Diego October Condo Prices
Other blogs on this topic:
Bubble Meter: Home sales plunged in November- Elsewhere Tuesday, the Commerce Department reported that U.S. new-home sales fell to their lowest level in over 17 years in November. … New home sales are 35.3% below their level in November 2007. … On Monday, federal regulators …
Realtors report monthly dip in home sales – Lansner on Real Estate …- The California Association of Realtors reported today that a dip in home sales last month may be a possible reaction to the economic meltdown. The ratio of home listings…
beSpacific: Existing-Home Sales Decline in Economic Uncertainty- News release: "Existing-home sales weakened against a backdrop of an eroding economy, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – fell 8.6 …
Area Home Sales Fall Over 30% In November- Home sales in the Chicago area plunged 32.3 percent and the median price fell a record 15.9 percent in November from a year earlier, according to the latest report from the Illinois Association of Realtors. There were 3910 homes sold, …
Home sales worse than forecast – Kansas City Star- Weaker than expected November sales of new and existing homes were reported Tuesday, along with a big drop in prices.
California Association of Realtors report: Home sales up, home …- A new report shows mixed numbers on the LA housing market.
San Diego Real Estate Recovery in 2009?
San Diego home values could finally stabilize in 2009. With a huge inventory of available homes and buyers actually having to qualify for a mortgage, there is a better than 50/50 chance the San Diego housing recovery won't occur in 2009 and maybe not in 2010.
Top this off with the fact that in 2009 we will see more "regular' adjustable home loans come up for their first adjustament than all the subprime loans of the past two years. With today's lower rates it may not be the 'rate shock' that is the problem, but the fact that many homeowners will, for the first time ,realize that their San Diego home is worth tens of thousands less than their loan balance.
San Diego Real Estate Bust of 1945?
San Diego Real Estate Market … What Did You Expect?
San Diego Real Estate – 5th Largest Decline Through July
San Diego Home Sales Up … San Diego Home Median Price Drops
Southern California Home Prices Drop 34% in August
#1 Key To Purchasing Real Estate in the San Diego Market
San Diego California Home Sellers Lose Big
The San Diego California Real Estate Great Depression
Yale Professor … House Price Decline Could Be Worse than Great Depression
Survey Says Home Values Must Fall Another 14%
A tinge of yellow — Greater Fool – The Troubled Future of Real Estate – In reality, it’s a godawful time for real estate, and it’s going to get progressively worse through 2009, for the reasons we have exhausted on this blog. Chief among them will be unemployment, as witnessed by the layoffs just announced …
Will 2009 be a Bull or Bear year? | Real Estate Buzz – McGrath Real Estate chief executive John McGrath is confident about the health of the market, predicting bargains aplenty in suburbs such as Vaucluse, Hunters Hill, Longueville, Northwood, Northbridge, Cremorne, Mosman, Avalon, …
INTERMEX POWER: Who Saw The Housing Bubble Coming? – While conceding that economic fundamentals were favorable to rising home prices, they also noted that there were elements of bubble psychology in the housing market. Case and Shiller pointed to an increase in the buying of real estate …
Tucson Real Estate Plunges January 2009 | Tucson Real Estate … – The Phoenix real estate market is not the Tucson real estate market. You can draw as many valid conclusions about the conditions of the Tucson real estate market from a housing report from China as you can from Phoenix. …
New Jersey Real Estate Report » A good time to buy? – No one should be surprised the real estate market has turned to sawdust. Home sales in New Jersey are expected to finish 2008 at just 68000, down 20 percent from the 85000 sold a year ago, said Jeffrey Otteau, president of otteau.com, …
Housing Bubble – Daily Digest – Jan 3 – - Jan. 2, 2009 | Blogs at … – It's an understatement to suggest residential real estate was either directly or tangentially very important to both economic and financial market outcomes in 2008. It has been the cornerstone of solvency, or lack thereof, …
Toronto Real Estate Intelligence | Toronto's Real Estate Blog … – While the sellers' market made some Toronto homeowners arrogant in the past, every offer made this year has to be treated with respect. January 3, 2009 in Toronto Real Estate Trends | Permalink …
St Cloud MN Real Estate Blog » Blog Archive » 3rd quarter 2008 … – We have seen the end of a crazy period of time both in the real estate market and in the stock market. It is truly amazing how things can change so fast. Click on the file below to see the overall real estate sales statistics for St …
10 FDIC Charts and Graphs Highlighting Bank Problems: FDIC … – Yet the true bank failures will be hitting in 2009 with the bust of the commercial real estate market. In this article, we are going to examine the makeup and anatomy of our banking system with data and charts from the FDIC. …