San Diego Real Estate Viewpoint

San Diego County home prices take a tumble

sold777@yahoo.com (Bob Schwartz) — Mon, 03 Jul 2006 12:47:41 +0000

SignOnSanDiego.com > News > Business -- San Diego County home prices take a tumble: "By Roger M. Showley
UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER
11:45 a.m. June 13, 2006
SAN DIEGO – San Diego County's home prices took their biggest tumble for any spring on record last month, DataQuick Information Systems reported Tuesday.
The median price of all homes sold in May was $490,000, down $15,000 from April, although it was still slightly higher than a year ago.
Snapshot: Home/condo sales May '05– May '06

Sales slowed for the 23rd straight month on a year-over-year basis, reaching 4,217 transactions in new and existing homes and condos.
Local real estate agents reported about seven months' worth of unsold inventory, but argued that the pace of activity reflects a normal market rather than a crash. "

Global property cycle's peaked, Morgan Stanley says - MarketWatch

sold777@yahoo.com (Bob Schwartz) — Thu, 29 Jun 2006 14:33:55 +0000

Global property cycle's peaked, Morgan Stanley says - MarketWatch: "Growing evidence of real-estate 'bust'
Fallout for consumers and corporate profits, eonomist says
E-mail | Print | | Disable live quotes By Chris Oliver, MarketWatch
Last Update: 6:47 AM ET Jun 29, 2006

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Evidence is mounting that the global property cycle is turning down, as rising interest rates and heightened inflationary pressures combine to put the brakes on demand for real estate, according to a Morgan Stanley report.
The shift ushers in an end to what's been a six-year rally during which the twin forces of globalization and financial innovation fed an upturn in the property cycle that became a worldwide phenomenon, said economist Andy Xie, in an Asia Pacific strategy report released Thursday.
'Due to deflation shocks, global inflation has been low, which allowed major central banks to keep interest rates very low, in turn fueling property,' Xie said. 'As inflation picks up simultaneously around the world, interest rates are rising everywhere, and the property boom is turning into a bust.'

Interest Rates Move Up!

sold777@yahoo.com (Bob Schwartz) — Mon, 26 Jun 2006 16:41:00 +0000

The chart below shows how Mortgage Bond prices have been progressively worsening, which in turn means home loan rates have been rising. But you can see how they are now hitting a tough technical "floor" of support that may help them gain some ground higher and bring improvement to home loan rates. Because Bonds tend to rise in price when negative economic news hits, the heavy news week ahead will provide some opportunity for that to happen.

Bob Schwartz is a Certified Residential
Specialist, San Diego real estate broker co-owner of websitetrafficbuilders, an Internet search engine optimization firm specializing in domain name registration & Internet domain website hosting Bob is an expert witness for major San Diego law firms, and directs a multi-state high traffic network of legal directory sites. You can also apply for free, web site awards that add credibility (and a link back) to your site, visit:web site award today.

Payment Shock in Store For ARM Borrowers, More Foreclosures in Future? - NationalRealtyNews.com

sold777@yahoo.com (Bob Schwartz) — Sat, 24 Jun 2006 19:47:00 +0000

Payment Shock in Store For ARM Borrowers, More Foreclosures in Future? - NationalRealtyNews.com: "Payment Shock in Store For ARM Borrowers, More Foreclosures in Future?
Thursday, June 22, 2006 - By Staff Writer, National Realty News

STUART, FL - Many borrowers who mortgaged their homes with adjustable rate mortgages while rates were at historic lows will soon be in store for a payment shock and the economy overall will certainly feel the effects. Some experts say prepare for a rise in delinquency rates and foreclosures.

Bankrate.com reports that over the next 18 months, more than $1 trillion of adjustable-rate mortgages will be hitting their first reset date. Assuming the average loan amount is $200,000, that amounts to 500,000 mortgages. The typical homeowner will be forced to seriously readjust their monthly budget when they go from paying on an interest only loan or a loan with a low starting rate to one that now requires playing catch up on the principal. Many borrowers will simply not be prepared for a sudden change that may require them to pay double more than they paid the previous month for their mortgage. Industry experts say this will fuel another year of increases in mortgage delinquency rates and foreclosures.

The effects will be evident in the economy overall, as well. That consumer who is suddenly paying more for their mortgage - and who is already feeling the heat due to high fuel prices - is most likely forced to cut back on spending money elsewhere - especially for consumer products and services. "
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BUILDER CONFIDENCE FALLS TO LOWEST POINT SINCE APRIL 1995

sold777@yahoo.com (Bob Schwartz) — Thu, 22 Jun 2006 13:46:00 +0000

The confidence level of the nation's home builders continues to decline in 2006, falling this month to its lowest reading since April 1995, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). The seasonally adjusted HMI stands at 42, down four points from May's revised reading of 46. An HMI above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good versus poor. According to NAHB, declining demand from investors, rising mortgage interest rates, and continued affordability issues all contributed to the decrease in builders' outlook for the new home market.

All three HMI components declined in June. The component measuring sales expectations declined five points to 50, while the components gauging current single-family sales and buyer traffic decreased to 47 and 29, respectively. Home builder confidence edged down across the nation in June, and in the West builder confidence declined one point to a seasonally adjusted HMI of 61.
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Smart money is leaving the real estate market

sold777@yahoo.com (Bob Schwartz) — Wed, 21 Jun 2006 14:46:00 +0000

Rockford's Newspaper Rock River Times | rockford illinois news information: "Dr. Christopher Thornberg, a member of the forecast staff, told a blog called The Housing Panic: “Actually, what we are seeing is a very typical slowdown in the market so far—there is nothing particularly soft about it (the landing in bubble markets). The claim is that because unit sales are falling but prices are still going up, that this is an unusual slowing. The fact is that most breaking markets start with activity, and it takes three to four quarters for that to take all the wind out of price appreciation. How hard it will be, remains to be seen.”"
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CA Foreclosures way UP!

sold777@yahoo.com (Bob Schwartz) — Tue, 20 Jun 2006 15:15:00 +0000

Foreclosures Continue to Rise in Southern California, Says Default Research: "Real estate bubble continues to deflate in Southern California, expert says

RISMEDIA, June 20, 2006—The number of foreclosures escalated throughout Southern California, with a rise of 29.09% since January 2006, according to Default Research (www.defaultresearch.com), the rapidly growing real estate research company for foreclosure properties.

While Riverside had the highest increase of 56.45%, San Diego County had an increase of 49%, followed by Los Angeles up 16.2%.
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Inflation Outlook Likely to Push Rates Still Higher

sold777@yahoo.com (Bob Schwartz) — Thu, 15 Jun 2006 15:10:00 +0000

Inflation Outlook Likely to Push Rates Still Higher
Wednesday, June 14, 2006 - By Staff Writer, The Originator Times
Click to Review

STUART, FL – Mortgage professionals everywhere have been wondering if interest rates will continue to rise and whether the Fed will hike short-term rates for the 17th consecutive time on June 29.
Looking at this week’s key economic briefings and results, all signs points to yes. The Fed will likely increase short-term rates by a quarter of a point. Anticipating this action, the bond market is apt to similarly push long-term mortgage rates higher. "
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Bubble Trouble? What to make of all the real estate trend news

sold777@yahoo.com (Bob Schwartz) — Sat, 03 Jun 2006 21:56:16 +0000

Bubble Trouble? What to make of all the real estate trend news: "On a basic level, the real estate experts can't really quibble about the basic facts: Many once-hot markets are showing signs of a cold front this summer. The Federal Reserve Board is expected to raise interest rates again to ward off inflation, and banks have begun to curb their promiscuous dispensing of risky, low-down loans. These factors will contribute to making real estate less appealing to many investors. Sure, people still need to live in houses, but the people who need to pour extra dollars somewhere may take a breather from speculative acrobatics to search for other investment circuses. (Can you say 'oil futures' three times fast?) "
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DQNews - California Press Release

sold777@yahoo.com (Bob Schwartz) — Sat, 03 Jun 2006 21:33:28 +0000

DQNews - California Press Release: "California April Home Sales
May 2006
A total of 47,250 new and resale houses and condos were sold statewide last month. That's down 13.3 percent from 54,500 for March and down 22.4 percent from a revised 60,900 for April 2005. Last year's April was the strongest April in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988.
The median price paid for a home last month was $468,000. That was down 0.4 percent from a revised $470,000 for March, a record, and up 10.4 percent from $424,000 for April a year ago. California April Home Sales
May 18, 2006
A total of 47,250 new and resale houses and condos were sold statewide last month. That's down 13.3 percent from 54,500 for March and down 22.4 percent from a revised 60,900 for April 2005. Last year's April was the strongest April in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988.
The median price paid for a home last month was $468,000. That was down 0.4 percent from a revised $470,000 for March, a record, and up 10.4 percent from $424,000 for April a year ago. "
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Cooling Housing Mkt. - Fed Chief

sold777@yahoo.com (Bob Schwartz) — Sun, 21 May 2006 15:30:00 +0000

Housing Cool-Down Is 'Orderly,' Fed Chief Says: "Housing Cool-Down Is 'Orderly,' Fed Chief SaysBy Tomoeh Murakami TseWashington Post Staff WriterFriday, May 19, 2006; Page D01Confirming what home buyers suspected and real estate sales figures have indicated for months, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said yesterday that the U.S. housing market was showing clear signs of cooling off.

Bernanke said the slowdown is 'moderate' and 'orderly' and pointed to the overall strength of the economy

Economist Dean Baker of the Center for Economic Policy and Research expressed concern that rising interest rates were squeezing homeowners who took out interest-only and adjustable-rate mortgages. Even when interest rates were at historically low levels, Baker said, stretched buyers were taking out exotic loans to get into pricey homes.

Baker said a rising inventory of homes in the Washington region could fuel a double-digit price decline if interest rates climb higher. Condo prices could fall by as much as 30 percent, and prices of single-family homes could drop by as much as 15 percent, he said.
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Inside Bay Area - Bay Area real estate sales hit 5-year low

sold777@yahoo.com (Bob Schwartz) — Sun, 21 May 2006 15:02:00 +0000

Inside Bay Area - Bay Area real estate sales hit 5-year low: "Bay Area real estate sales hit 5-year low
By Eve Mitchell, BUSINESS WRITER

Sundays — the days when many real estate professionals set up open houses — have been a lot quieter lately for Daniel Joe, a Redwood City-based Realtor.
Call it one of the hidden signs of the slowing real estate market, which last month saw the lowest level of Bay Area home sales in five years, according to a report Thursday from DataQuick Information Systems. It started last spring, when sales dropped off as the number of homes on the market began to rise and so did interest rates. Now sales are sliding, interest rates are even higher and prices are increasing at a lower rate.
When the housing market was hot, so was attendance by prospective buyers at open houses. Not so in today's cooling market.
'I don't see a whole bunch of people walking through the properties all at one time,' said Joe, who works at Realty World Hirsch & Associates in Redwood
City.
The Bay Area median price did reach a new record in April, DataQuick said. But the new peak of $628,000 is not that much to get excited about, given that sales volume dropped 25.1 percent from a year ago.
Some 8,358 new and resale condominiums changed hands in the Bay Area last month — the slowest April since 2001 when 7,193 homes were sold, and a 14.2 percent decline from March. " >Bob Schwartz, CRS, GRI, is a Certified Residential Specialist
San Diego real estate broker
http://www.Brokerforyou.com
with over 27 years experience. Bob's other sites are about
San Diego downtown real
estate condominiums at:
http://www.downtown-san-diego-real-estate.com & a
free San Diego For Sale By
Owner website at http://www.san-diego-for-sale-by-owner.com

Five Year Low for Home Sales

sold777@yahoo.com (Bob Schwartz) — Wed, 17 May 2006 15:24:00 +0000

May 16, 2006
La Jolla,CA----Home sales in Southern California decelerated in April to their slowest pace since 2001, the result of higher mortgage interest rates and less buyer urgency. Prices rose at a single-digit appreciation rate for the first time in more than four years, a real estate information service reported.

A total of 24,748 new and resale homes sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties in April. That was down 16.1 percent from 29,509 in March and down 21.3 percent from 31,431 in April last year.

The year-over-year sales decline was the steepest since April 1995, when home purchases slowed 24.0 percent. Last month's sales count was the lowest for any April since 24,120 homes were sold in April 2001. DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988, show an average April for the nineteen years saw 23,660 sales.

"March and April have shown us that the boom phase of this cycle is behind us, so now it's just a question of how the cycle ends. Right now it looks like changes in the real estate market are happening gradually. But there's a lot of uncertainty among analysts regarding the effect of higher interest rates and how fast the economy is generating demand in regional markets," said Marshall Prentice, DataQuick president.

San Diego downtown real estate agent.

Southern California real estate

sold777@yahoo.com (Bob Schwartz) — Mon, 15 May 2006 23:28:21 +0000

DQNews - Southern California Press Release: "Southland passes half million mark
April 18, 2006
La Jolla,CA----The median price paid for a Southern California home passed $500,000 for the first time last month as sales continued to decline, the result of higher mortgage interest rates and a real estate cycle that has passed its frenzy phase, a real estate information service reported.
The median price paid for a home in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties was $501,000 last month. That was up 4.4 percent from $480,000 in February and up 14.1 percent from $439,000 for March a year ago, according to DataQuick Information Systems.
The regional year-over-year increase in median has varied from 12.9 percent to 17.0 percent the last 12 months. Last month's increase ranged from 5.7 percent in San Diego County to 23.2 percent in San Bernardino County.
'We still expect the annual increase in median to go down into the single digits sometime this summer. San Diego County is still the market furthest along in this cycle. Price increases there have been below ten percent the last eleven months,' said Marshall Prentice, DataQuick president.
A total of 29,509 new and resale Southland homes were sold last month. That was up 48.2 percent from 19,905 in February and down 9.7 percent from 32,674 for March last year.
An increase from February to March is normal for the season. Sales have declined on a year-over-year basis the last 4 months. "
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Interest Only Mortgages - The Way to go???

sold777@yahoo.com (Bob Schwartz) — Fri, 21 Apr 2006 19:54:00 +0000

The popularity of fixed-rate interest-only mortgages is skyrocketing.These loans, in which the borrower pays nothing toward the principal and can feel confident the payment will remain level, typically for the first 10 or 15 years, were virtually unknown two years ago. They now account for 8 percent of all new residential mortgages, according to UBS AG, a financial services firm.U.S. Bancorp, Quicken Loans Inc., GMAC Mortgage, and Bank of America Corp. are among the lenders offering the product. The downside for buyers is that they build no equity in the property beyond its increasing value. And the monthly payment will rise precipitously once a borrower begins repaying principal.
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Ruth Simon (04/19/2006)
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